The National League doesn't look significantly different than it did a year ago, but expectations for a few key teams have changed.
The Mets go from the hunter to the hunted. Vice versa for the Nationals.
The Diamondbacks spent a ton of money to compete in the NL West. The Dodgers' roster isn't as strong. Neither of them is the NL West favorite.
And none of those teams is as well set-up as the Cubs, who at least on paper have a roster capable of gaining home-field advantage throughout the NL playoffs.
Below are five National League predictions for 2016, followed by my projected order of finish:
1. The Cubs will be the class of the NL
With Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester heading a rotation that also added quality start machine John Lackey, and with perhaps the deepest lineup in the NL, the Cubs look like the best team in the National League.
They added versatility in the form of Ben Zobrist and a very good all-around player in Jason Heyward while also keeping centerfielder Dexter Fowler. The Fowler move was important because it allows Heyward to play right field, where he's the best defender in the game.
MLB
With Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber, the Cubs have more than enough power. And bringing back Fowler also allows the Cubs to platoon Schwarber, who couldn't hit lefties at all last season, with Jorge Soler in left field.
I'm not sold on Jason Hammel and Kyle Hendricks at the back-end of Chicago's rotation, nor am I sold on a bullpen with Hector Rondon and Pedro Strop as the two key pieces, but the Cubs could always make a midseason trade or two to improve upon their holes.
2. I'm not lionizing the Mets
Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz and Bartolo Colon will form one of the NL's best rotations, but just because the Mets had a great second half and a run to the World Series in 2015 doesn't necessarily mean the same will happen this season.
I think they're a top-five NL team but I don't think there's a ton of separation between them and the Nationals. A lot went right for the Mets last season. Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy carried them for weeks at a time at crucial junctures. Murphy is gone and Cespedes' production has always been volatile.
A full season of David Wright, or at least more of him than the Mets got in 2015, should help, as should a full season of Michael Conforto. And I do think the Mets will win 90 games again, I just think a few teams will be better. Don't love the Mets' bullpen or bench.
May sound silly to Phillies fans, but the Nats' addition of Ben Revere was an important one. I've long believed that on a better team, his flaws would be minimized and strengths enhanced. He was miscast the last few years on Phils teams that had so little offense around him. But leading off for Washington and with as many as five above-average offensive players hitting after him, Revere's steals and singles should actually matter.
3. At least 3 NL teams will be worse than the Phillies
The bottom of the NL is bad. Really, really bad. I'm not positive if the math would even allow this, but multiple teams among the Braves, Reds, Brewers and either Padres or Rockies could lose 100 games.
I'm not painting some overly optimistic picture of the Phillies, but would it shock you if a team with Maikel Franco, Odubel Herrera, an improved defense, sound starting pitching staff and prospects on the way finished better than the depleted Reds? Or the rebuilding Braves? Or the stagnant, pitching-starved Brewers? Or the confused Rockies?
Freddie Freeman has zero offensive talent around him. Wily Peralta is starting on opening day for the Brewers. Joey Votto might walk 200 times given how much Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce have declined and are unable to protect him. The Rockies (shockingly) still have no pitching.
The many weak links in the NL provide another reason to lean toward the over on the Phillies' projected win total of 65.5.
4. The D-backs will miss the playoffs
Really, how often does the offseason darling actually turn the spending into immediate success?
Zack Greinke is an ace, Patrick Corbin's return will be important and Shelby Miller is also an upgrade, but I'm not expecting Miller to be as dominant as he was the early part of 2015. He did have a 4.10 ERA over his final 16 starts for the Braves last season.
The Diamondbacks are as top heavy a team as you'll find. Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt, A.J. Pollock, perhaps Corbin and Miller and then a significant drop-off.
To really compete with the Giants and Dodgers, the D-backs will need Greinke to be Greinke, Goldschmidt and Pollock to turn in MVP-candidate seasons again, Welington Castillo to prove 2015 wasn't a fluke, and they'll also need Yasmany Tomas to give them some return on investment.
I see a good, not great team. I think the Diamondbacks will be much better than the 2015 White Sox and Padres — last year's offseason darlings — but fall just short of the playoffs with 85 to 87 wins.
5. Still loving Pirates as NL's 2nd-best team
Pittsburgh made a lot of quiet improvements.
John Jaso, who has a .373 OBP since 2012, should form a solid 1B platoon with Mike Morse. Jaso has always been a walks machine and has nine in 40 spring plate appearances.
Jon Niese could be the latest starting pitcher to find magic in Pittsburgh, joining a list that in recent years has included A.J. Burnett, J.A. Happ, Vance Worley and Francisco Liriano. Liriano, by the way, remains one of the most underrated starters in baseball. In 510 innings since joining the Pirates before 2013, Liriano has a 3.26 ERA and 543 strikeouts.
Gerrit Cole is only getting better. Bona fide ace.
And then of course, Andrew McCutchen is one of the most consistent offensive players in the game. I also think this is the year Starling Marte goes from very good to great.
If Gregory Polanco begins to figure things out from an offensive standpoint, the Pirates could finish ahead of the Cubs.
Predicted standings
NL East
Nationals 91-71
Mets 90-72
Marlins 82-80
Phillies 69-93
Braves 66-96
NL Central
Cubs 96-66
Pirates 93-69
Cardinals 87-75
Reds 67-95
Brewers 64-98
NL West
Giants 92-70
Dodgers 88-74
D-backs 86-76
Rockies 73-89
Padres 70-92
On Wednesday, we take a look at the American League.