A friend of mine asked the other day if I had any sleeper teams for the 2016 MLB season, which begins Sunday night.
I went through the league in my head and, really, couldn't come up with a team I'd consider a true sleeper in the mold of the 2015 Astros. Last year's Cubs, for example, were not a sleeper because many believed entering the season that they'd be pretty good.
Going over the National League with Monday's predictions, the playoff-caliber teams mostly look the same: Cubs, Giants, Pirates, Cardinals, Dodgers, Mets or Nationals. Maybe the Diamondbacks enter the picture, but they're not a sleeper based on how much they spent this winter.
Over in the AL, I do see a few teams who could rise from poor records last season to make it to October. Here are five things I see playing out in the Junior Circuit:
1. Royals won't have the best record
After losing to the Giants in the 2014 World Series, the Royals went 95-67 in the regular season and won it all. But while Kansas City still has a strong young core, there are some holes on the roster.
The Royals were great last season behind a dynamic offense and an unreal bullpen. The 'pen lost Ryan Madson (2.13 ERA) to the A's and Greg Holland (32 saves, 9.9 K/9) to Tommy John surgery. They did add Joakim Soria to the back-end of the bullpen, which still includes Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera.
A starting rotation of Edinson Volquez, Ian Kennedy, Yordano Ventura, Chris Young and Kris Medlen doesn't seem like enough to repeat 95 wins unless Ventura reverts to his 2014 form. Still think the offense, with Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales, Sal Perez, Alcides Escobar and Mike Moustakas, has enough power and speed to get KC another AL Central title, but this looks like more of a 90- to 92-win team.
MLB
2. Tigers will be most improved AL team
Detroit had the second-worst record in the AL last year at 74-87. It was just a season in which a lot went wrong.
Miguel Cabrera missed 43 games.
Victor Martinez got hurt and his batting average dipped from .335 to .245.
Joe Nathan made one appearance, and after his injury the bullpen was terrible. Bruce Rondon and Neftali Feliz failed as closers. The Tigers' bullpen missed the fewest bats of any team (9.5 percent swinging strike rate) and finished with a 4.38 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
The Tigers last season traded away an ace in David Price and a very good outfielder in Yoenis Cespedes, but they restocked the roster this offseason, adding LF Justin Upton, SP Jordan Zimmermann, closer Francisco Rodriguez and setup men Mark Lowe and Justin Wilson. That trio of relievers should improve the Tigers' relief corps, which has been a weakness for years and probably cost them a chance at winning the World Series in Cabrera's prime.
With Upton, Cabrera, J.D. Martinez (38 HR last season), Ian Kinsler and Victor Martinez, the Tigers have as powerful a 1 through 5 as any AL team except the Blue Jays. They'll need Cabrera to be healthy and have one of his typical MVP seasons.
They'll also need full seasons and a combined ERA of 3.50 or lower from the top three of Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez and Zimmermann. Sanchez stunk last season (4.99 ERA), Verlander missed a dozen starts, and Zimmermann had the worst full season of his career. Still, all are capable of pitching 200 quality innings.
I don't think everything is going to go right for Detroit in 2016, but the Tigers have enough balance to win 88 to 90 games even if a few players fail.
3. Blue Jays will repeat as AL East champs
Yes, the Blue Jays lost Price to the division-rival Red Sox, but I still think they can at least match last year's 93-69 record. Why? Because the bullpen is much better than it was when it blew lead after lead early last season.
Toronto traded Ben Revere to the Nationals in January for Drew Storen in a trade that should help both teams. Washington got a leadoff hitter whose skills will actually matter in a deep lineup, and Toronto got a closer/setup man to pair with young fireballer Roberto Osuna.
Oh, and the Blue Jays should — and this is theoretical because of his lengthy injury history — have a full season of shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.
With Tulo, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, AL MVP Josh Donaldson, Chris Colabello and Michael Saunders, the Blue Jays have more than enough power. They're also solid up the middle with Russell Martin behind the plate and Kevin Pillar in center field.
The rotation is the X-factor for the Blue Jays. Budding ace Marcus Stroman is back; Mark Buehrle is gone. R.A. Dickey will pitch at 41 this season, and J.A. Happ signed after a successful 2015 season (3.61 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 in 172 IP).
Marco Estrada, who had a 3.05 ERA in 200⅓ innings last season (including postseason) may miss his first start with a back issue but it looks like he could be back in early April. Seems like enough pitching, and with how close the window is to closing for Toronto — Bautista and Encarnacion are free agents after the season — the Jays will likely fill holes via trade at some point in the season.
4. Angels will miss the playoffs again ...
... and find themselves one step closer to considering trading Mike Trout for what would have to be one of the biggest returns in major-league history.
Look, Trout is a generational talent. But he's one guy. And the team the Angels have surrounded him with just isn't good enough. They've tried, the signings just haven't worked out. Albert Pujols hit 40 homers last season but he's a one-dimensional player at this point. He can't move and he no longer hits for average. The Josh Hamilton signing was a disaster and he's long gone. The C.J. Wilson signing hasn't worked out either, he just keeps getting hurt.
I don't see many reasons to be optimistic about the Halos this season. Trout, Pujols and Kole Calhoun are offensive pluses, but nobody else in the projected lineup is a lock to be above average offensively. They really need Yunel Escobar to come close to last year's .314 batting average.
Andrelton Simmons is elite defensively at shortstop and that acquisition should help the Angels' pitching staff, but I don't think it's enough to push them ahead of the Rangers or Astros. Quite frankly, not sure the Angels are even a lock to outperform the Mariners. (By the way, Felix Hernandez has reached a criminally underrated point based on what was really just one down season. If he has another, OK, I'll buy that he's entering a decline phase. But I can't believe how late I've been seeing him go in fantasy drafts.)
I do like Angels SPs Garrett Richards and Andrew Heaney quite a bit, and lefty starter Hector Santiago is underrated. But this has the look of an 83- to 86-win team and that probably won't net an AL playoff berth.
The Angels also have one of the worst farm systems in recent memory. Messy situation.
5. Yankees will make the playoffs
Aside from middle infielders Starlin Castro and Didi Gregorius, here are the ages of the Yankees' other seven starting position players: 32, 32, 32, 32, 36, 38, 40.
And yet still, I think the Yankees are capable of making the playoffs just barely ahead of teams like the Astros and Orioles. This bullpen is talented enough to guide them to October.
Aroldis Chapman is suspended 30 games, so Andrew Miller will reassume the role of closer the first month of the season. Once Chapman is reinstated, the three-headed monster of Chapman, Miller and Dellin Betances is ... I don't even know what word to use. They could legitimately be described as three of the top five relievers in the game.
• Betances, last two seasons: 144 appearances, 1.45 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 13.8 K/9
• Miller, last two seasons: 133 appearances, 2.03 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 14.7 K/9
• Chapman, last four seasons: 255 appearances, 1.90 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 16.1 K/9
The Yankees took the Royals' model of the last few seasons and upped the ante. Their games will be shortened significantly barring injury issues or unforeseen struggles. Wouldn't be surprising at the end of the season if you looked back at their record when leading after six innings and the win percentage was nearly flawless.
Offensively, the Jacoby Ellsbury-Brett Gardner tandem atop the lineup always has the potential to combine for 200-plus runs scored given their high OBPs and speed and the power that comes after them in the form of aging sluggers Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran.
I think the X-factor for New York is Castro. It was due time for him to get a scenery change from the Cubs. Castro's career began with so much hype, and in his first three seasons he hit .297 with a .761 OPS. But 2013 and 2015 were both down years, and Castro's ultra-aggressive approach frustrated the Cubs. He's walked in just 4.9 percent of his career plate appearances.
But the short porches at Yankee Stadium help every hitter. Would it be all that surprising if Castro, who's averaged 12 homers the last five seasons, increased that to the 16 to 20 range?
Rotationally, Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, Nate Eovaldi, Luis Severino and CC Sabathia make for an extremely volatile staff. They could all be really good or really bad. (Except Sabathia, who looks finished at this point.) But again, the bullpen will make everything better.
AL East
Blue Jays 97-65
Yankees 89-73
Orioles 87-75
Red Sox 80-82
Rays 68-94
AL Central
Royals 92-70
Tigers 89-73
Indians 78-84
White Sox 74-88
Twins 69-93
AL West
Rangers 88-74
Astros 87-75
Mariners 83-79
Angels 79-83
Athletics 70-92