Leading up to opening day Monday, we will preview the Phillies' competition in the NL East, a division that has undergone significant change as the Phils have declined.
Next up: the confused Atlanta Braves
Atlanta's make-it-up-as-we-go-along offseason looks like it was architected by Chip Kelly.
The Braves, like the Phillies, are rebuilding. The Braves, like the Phillies, are projected to be one of the worst teams in baseball in 2015.
Unlike the Phillies, the Braves have some young building blocks in first baseman Freddie Freeman, shortstop Andrelton Simmons, catcher Christian Bethancourt, closer Craig Kimbrel and starting pitchers Julio Teheran, Alex Wood and Shelby Miller. Atlanta is working with tastier ingredients and is further along in its rebuild because it has locked up much of its young talent.
But it's been a befuddling offseason full of half measures for the Braves in president of baseball operations John Hart's first year back in a front office. If you're going to rebuild, then handing out big contracts or hanging onto your most tradable assets are things you don't do. The Phillies are guilty of the latter, but at least they've avoided the former over the last two winters.
Outfield overhaul
The Braves traded Justin Upton to the Padres and Jason Heyward to the Cardinals this offseason.
MLB
The return in the Heyward deal was Miller, who will pitch in the middle of the Braves' rotation. Solid move for a rebuilding team to trade one year of Heyward (free agent after 2015) for four years of club control over Miller.
The return in the Upton deal ... meh. The Braves received infielders Jace Peterson and Dustin Peterson and pitcher Max Fried from San Diego. Jace Peterson is the Braves' projected opening day second baseman. The other two haven't made it past A-ball yet. Yes, Upton is approaching free agency, but that's still a rather weak haul for one of the few 30-home run hitters left in this powerless game.
The Braves didn't feel they could re-sign Heyward or Upton, who both might end up with deals exceeding $100 million. This is a franchise that has never spent more in a season than it did in 2014, when its payroll was just below $115 million.
Which makes the four-year, $44 million contract for veteran outfielder Nick Markakis so strange. The Braves signed Markakis early in the offseason, after the Heyward trade but before the Upton trade. Markakis is a nice player and fits best as maybe the fifth-best offensive player on a contending team, which is what he was with the Orioles. But Atlanta just doesn't appear to be the fit for him. He's 31 years old. It's difficult to envision the Braves contending before the final year of his deal.
Don't get it. There isn't a ton of outfield competition in Atlanta's system, just like there is so little outfield competition in the Phillies' system that they felt the need to re-sign Grady Sizemore for two years. But Sizemore isn't making $44 million.
Keep Kimbrel?
Atlanta's most attractive remaining piece is probably Kimbrel, one of the few steadily dominant closers in baseball. Kimbrel, 26, has a 1.43 ERA and 0.90 WHIP in 294 career games. He has 186 saves and just 19 blown saves for a conversion rate of 90.7 percent.
He has struck out 14.8 batters per nine innings in his career. To put that in perspective, the previous all-time major-league record for a pitcher with at least as many career innings as Kimbrel is 12.2 by Rob Dibble.
Kimbrel is entering the second year of a four-year, $42 million contract. He will make $9.25 million this season, $11.25 million in 2016 and $13.25 million in 2017. Teams didn't want to trade for those sort of expensive years of Jonathan Papelbon, but you better believe they'd be willing to dole out cash for Kimbrel.
Braves executives insist that they are not interested in moving Kimbrel, but what exactly is the point of an expensive, elite closer on a 77-win team? Seems like posturing. Don't be shocked if Kimbrel is dealt at the trade deadline or the winter meetings.
Reasons to watch
The Braves certainly have more reasons for fans to watch than the Phillies.
Freeman is a durable and productive slugger in his mid-20s with few holes in his left-handed swing. He's averaged 153 games in four seasons since becoming the Braves' full-time first baseman, and over that span he's hit .287 with an .834 OPS. His power is continuing to develop — last season he hit 43 doubles and 18 homers, and oftentimes those kind of totals morph into 30 to 35 doubles and 25 to 30 home runs as a player hits his peak years.
Simmons is the best defensive shortstop since Ozzie Smith and that is not hyperbole. He's won back-to-back Gold Glove awards and, barring injury, will likely put together a long string of them. If he ever develops offensively, the Braves will have one of the best overall players in the game.
Teheran, Atlanta's ace who was recently rocked by the Phillies in a spring training game, has lived up to the hype in his first two full seasons, going 28-21 with a 3.03 ERA and .238 opponents' batting average in 63 starts.
Miller and Alex Wood also have some promise in the middle of the Braves' rotation. The Braves are hoping to build around this trio of 24-year-old pitchers.
The outlook
The Braves will make more noise than the Phillies, but these two teams figure to be doormats for the Nationals and Marlins. The Braves are projected by some systems to finish with the second-worst record in baseball. I don't see that, but I also don't see them sniffing 80 wins. The prediction here is a 75-87 campaign and an eventual trade of Kimbrel to further the Braves' rebuild.