Leading up to opening day Monday, we will preview the Phillies' competition in the NL East, a division that has undergone significant change as the Phils have declined.
First up: the new-look Miami Marlins
Everyone expects the Nationals to run away with the NL East, so starting with Washington would have been easy and expected. The most interesting team in the division, however, is the Miami Marlins, a team whose projected win total has significantly more variance.
If everything breaks right, the Marlins could improve from 77-85 to a 90-win team. If things go awry, as they did the last time the Fish went on a spending spree, they could lose 85 games again.
And despite all the new faces on the roster, most of that variance is based around superstar slugger Giancarlo Stanton.
It starts with Stanton
This is the first season of Stanton's record-setting 13-year, $325 million contract. He makes just $6.5 million in a backloaded deal that allowed the Marlins to make other acquisitions.
The perception exists that Stanton, because of his superhuman physique and uncanny power, is a consistent MVP candidate. But he's not. Last year was the first time in his five-year career he finished higher than 23rd in MVP voting (Stanton was the runner-up to Clayton Kershaw and may have won the award if not for a facial fracture on Sept. 11 that ended his season).
MLB
In 145 games last season, Stanton hit .288/.395/.555 with an NL-leading 37 home runs and 105 RBIs. It was an extremely impressive, put-it-all-together year. It made folks forget that Stanton hit .249 the previous year, or that he missed 85 games combined in 2012 and 2013.
Simply put, the Marlins need their 25-year-old star on the field for at least 145 games in 2015. He's never played more than 150 in a season.
The supporting cast
We've seen the Marlins spend a ton of money in the past only to turn the roster over soon thereafter, whether or not things work out. So when Miami inked Stanton to that megadeal, the natural, cynical reaction was that it was merely a prelude to a trade down the road.
But Miami then went out and protected its investment, adding talent around Stanton to make itself a bit less reliant on one player.
The Marlins traded for All-Star second baseman Dee Gordon, who was surprisingly made available by the Dodgers after hitting .289 with 64 steals in 2014.
They added first baseman Michael Morse in free agency. They traded for super utilityman Martin Prado to replace Casey McGehee at third base.
They added Ichiro as a fourth outfielder — he should thrive in that role in the NL — and added a much-needed veteran starter in Mat Latos.
This is now an above-average National League lineup and a more experienced rotation with Latos and Dan Haren, acquired in the Gordon trade.
The X-factor
Who needs a deadline deal when you have a Cy Young candidate returning from injury in June or July? Jose Fernandez, the 2013 Rookie of the Year and third-place Cy Young finisher, is projected back in the middle of the summer after Tommy John surgery claimed most of his 2014 season.
Fernandez has one of the most dangerous pitching repertoires in the game: a heavy fastball that sits 95 to 98, a power curve with sharp break and a disappearing changeup. He was untouchable as a rookie, allowing 5.8 hits per nine innings, the lowest rate for any major-league starter since Pedro Martinez in 2000.
In 36 career starts, Fernandez is 16-8 with a 2.25 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.8 walks.
If he gives Miami 15 starts, that could be the difference in the wild-card race. A rotation of Fernandez, Latos, Henderson Alvarez, Jarred Cosart and Haren could lead a team far.
Stanton's outfield mates
The Marlins could challenge the Pirates for the most talented outfield in the majors. With Stanton in right field, Christian Yelich in left and Marcell Ozuna in center, the Fish have three players from ages 23 to 25 who contribute offensively and defensively.
Yelich, 23, signed a seven-year extension worth nearly $50 million in late March. The 2010 first-rounder impressed last year in his first full major-league season, hitting .284 with a .362 OBP in 660 plate appearances. He hit 30 doubles, six triples, nine homers and stole 21 bases. He has the type of batting eye, gap power, speed and HR potential you want in a two-hole hitter.
Ozuna, 24, burst into the public eye in 2013 with the Marlins with a few remarkable outfield assists. He has one of the game's best arms, and he took a step forward offensively in 2014, his first full major-league season, hitting .269 with 23 homers, 85 RBIs and a .772 OPS.
Ozuna has done some of his best work against the Phillies, hitting .311 with 12 extra-base hits, 16 RBIs and 17 runs in 26 games.
Yelich is projected to bat second, between Gordon and Stanton, with Ozuna likely hitting fifth or sixth.
The outlook
If Latos and Haren, two flyball pitchers, can make use of the cavernous dimensions of Marlins Park, if Fernandez can return on time or ahead of schedule, and if Cosart can avoid a suspension for recent gambling developments, this is going to be a playoff team.
Obviously, that is barring the disaster of a Stanton injury.
The Marlins' lineup is deep and talented, but the balance is what's most impressive. Stanton is a superstar, Gordon is a traditional speedster, Morse is a traditional power hitter, but Yelich and Ozuna can't be placed into a box, and Prado is the perfect complementary hitter for a team like this.
The prediction here is that the Marlins battle with the Nationals deep into the summer before relenting the division title to Washington. Miami should finish about 88-74 and secure one of the two NL wild-card spots.
On Friday: A look at the Nats