CLEARWATER, Fla. — The Phillies had no idea last summer that Andrew Painter would be able to participate in the Arizona Fall League.
Their top pitching prospect had undergone Tommy John surgery on July 25, 2023 and was being held out for the entire 2024 season. Painter is still just 21 years old and the Phillies feel he can be a major-league ace so they were always going to lean toward a cautious approach.
"But he kept progressing, progressing," Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Wednesday.
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Painter's rehab went well enough that team head athletic trainer Paul Buchheit told Dombrowski as the Arizona Fall League approached that he thought the right-hander was healthy enough to move to the next phase. Painter was pushing for it. He went to the AFL and dominated, earning the league's Pitcher of the Year award by allowing just four runs in 15⅔ innings with 18 strikeouts and four walks.
The Phillies are still taking things slowly with Painter, a giant at 6-foot-7 who is filling out. He's in big-league camp with a locker in the back-right corner near Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Matt Strahm but will not pitch in Grapefruit League games. Painter won't be on the Opening Day roster, which was a real possibility two springs ago before the elbow injury. For now, he will throw on the side every three days. The next step would be facing hitters, then pitching in extended spring training games as the regular season approaches.
If all goes well, Painter would then build up by pitching in the minor leagues. Provided he's healthy and performing, he could be called up to the majors by June or July.
"I've said all along July-ish and I don't know if that means June or August," Dombrowski said. "Hopefully we have five really good starting pitchers at that point that make it difficult for him to break into (the rotation). So you wait to see what happens. But that's when I think we'll turn him loose more because if you look at the innings limitation, we want to build him up and not burn him too early in the year."
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The Phillies' rotation is filled out with Wheeler, Nola, Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo. Suarez is the only one who will reach free agency after the season. No team boasts a better starting five, but teams never make it through 162 games with just five starters, especially now. Injuries occur. Pitchers at times require rest.
The Phils will be careful with all of their starters because October trumps all other months. They've had the dynamic first half. They've put together late-season surges. They've dominated for portions of the playoffs. But it hasn't all clicked the way it's needed to for as long as it's needed to.
To win a World Series, the Phillies will need the most effective possible versions of at least three of their five starters in the postseason. Having Painter in their back pocket after the All-Star break could help preserve those starters while acclimating him to the major leagues. Maybe he spells a starter. Maybe the Phillies utilize a six-man rotation. Maybe he temporarily serves as a multi-inning guy blowing 99 mph past hitters. Could be quite a weapon when it matters most.
"I'm very excited. I think he's one of the best young pitchers in baseball," Dombrowski said. "I think he's going to be a tremendous major-league pitcher. When I say that, I don't worry about him hearing that and not working hard. He works extremely hard. We just have to be careful with him this year. He's going to be able to pitch some innings, but I'm extremely excited to have him close to pitching at the major-league level. He has the potential to be a number one, top-of-the-rotation type of starter. Maybe he wouldn't be ours right off the bat — we've got some pretty good ones - but he has that type of potential for the long-term."