Phillies still bullish on the ‘pen but hoping for a better ending

CLEARWATER, Fla. — The Phillies had home-field going into the National League Division Series last October despite muddling through the second half of the regular season. The Mets were on a tear, scratching and clawing the final month just to claim the final wild-card berth.

Catcher J.T. Realmuto summed up what that meant the day before the festivities began. "I think it's important for us to be able to come out and start well in this series and try to put an end to the momentum they've clearly gained," he said. "They're a really hot team."

Zack Wheeler executed the plan to near-perfection in Game 1 the following afternoon before a frenzied sellout at Citizens Bank Park. He pitched seven shutout innings, allowing one hit and striking out nine. After throwing 111 pitches, He turned a 1-0 lead over to the bullpen that had been so dependable for so much of the season.

Oops.

Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm and Orion Kerkering combined to give up five runs on five hits and a walk. The Mets won and went on to easily dismiss the Phillies in four games.

Would it have altered the outcome of the series if the Phillies had held on to win Game 1? Maybe, maybe not. The lineup went AWOL as well. What can be said with certainty is that the bullpen saved its worst for last and the ghastly 11.37 ERA the relievers pitched to will live in the record books forever.

It also illustrates the importance of top-to-bottom relief depth in an era when starters prioritize max effort on every pitch and, as a result, rarely finish what they started.

Hoffman and Carlos Estevez have since departed as free agents. Jordan Romano and Joe Ross have been added. Strahm, Kerkering, Jose Alvarado, Tanner Banks and Jose Ruiz were penciled in before camp opened, leaving just one vacancy to be filled. It would be two if Strahm's left shoulder impingement delays his start to the season.

While relievers are notoriously up and down from one season to the next, the Phillies like the group they've assembled going into the season opener at Washington on March 27. Given the inherent inconsistency of the role, though, like any team, they are counting on one or two from the group to take a step forward.

Dave Dombrowski nominated Kerkering.

"Even though he's done well, I don't think people realize how good a pitcher (2.29 ERA in 67 games last season) he's been," the president of baseball operations said while sitting in his BayCare Ballpark office this spring. "So I think he can definitely jump up and pitch late innings. He's pitched more like the seventh inning, but he's definitely a late-inning type of guy."

Realmuto is impressed with the soon-to-turn-24 right-hander who has yet to earn his first big-league save.

"There's no doubt in my mind that he'll be a closer in this game for sure," the All-Star catcher told The Phillies Show podcast. "He has that 'it' factor where when he steps on the mound. ... He's trying to execute and no moment really seems too big for him, so I definitely think he has that mentality."

Said manager Rob Thomson: "There's really two guys for me: Kerkering and Alvarado. One from the left and one from the right. They both have great stuff. And they have the capacity to throw strikes and command the baseball. If they do their thing, we've got a really, really good bullpen."

Alvarado has been dominant at times but has also struggled with command. And that makes all the difference. Consider:

In 31 games from April 13 through July 3 last season, he had six walks in 29.1 innings while throwing 65 percent of his pitches for strikes. In those games, his ERA was 2.15 and he held batters to a .198 average.

In his next 18 games, he had more than twice as many walks (13) in about half the innings (16.1) and threw strikes 56 percent of the time. In those outings, his ERA was 7.16 and opposing batters hit .288.

The Phillies are also counting on Romano, who had a total of 72 saves for the Blue Jays in 2022-23 but is coming off elbow surgery that ended his season last May.

For most of the time Thomson has been the manager, he's declined to designate a closer. This follows the sabermetric imperative that the ninth inning isn't always the most critical late inning of a game. And that will be the case again this season, at least at the outset.

(He deviated last season after Estevez was acquired from Angels at the deadline, cognizant that the veteran was accustomed to being used in the ninth and closers frequently struggle when a save isn't on the line. Similarly, when Craig Kimbrel was pitching well in 2022, he was largely confined to game-on-the-line situations.)

"We do not have a closer," Thomson said. "Romano's been a closer, but he was hurt last year. He could develop into the guy, but we've really got four or five guys where you could say, 'Okay, you've got the ninth inning every night.' And then you piece the other innings together according to what you've got and what you're up against.

"But as of right now, I say we go by committee and do it by the pockets and by the innings."

For the most part, that's been a successful formula for the Phillies. And when it's not, there isn't much that can be done about it.

Said Dombrowski: "I don't ever like to use the phrase, 'That's baseball.' Things happen and I think 'That's baseball' is a broken-bat blooper over your head. They just didn't pitch well (in the NLDS). That was just really the way it was, for whatever reason. I was as surprised as anybody."