The Phillies finally came through Wednesday night with the big hit and insurance runs that eluded them during a four-game losing streak, their second long skid in less than three weeks.
Kyle Schwarber and a late rally rescued them after another early deficit as the starting staff's struggles continued. Tyler Phillips did settle in after a rocky first inning but allowed five runs over 4⅓ innings.
The Phillies' rotation had a 3.20 ERA through July 12, by far the best in baseball. It has a 4.90 ERA since, which ranks 19th and has dropped them to 3.53 for the season.
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The Phils did everything well in the first half but they were led by the starters. Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez excelled and Aaron Nola could have joined them at the All-Star Game with an 11-4 record, 3.38 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
Since the break, Wheeler has pitched well and Kolby Allard had a couple of short, solid starts, but the rest of the rotation has fallen off. The general theme has been a lack of command — the strikes largely have not been quality strikes, they've caught too much plate.
"I'm falling behind and leaving pitches over the middle of the plate and guys are taking advantage of it," Phillips said Wednesday night, a description that could fit most of the staff the last five cycles through.
"I just need to get my edge back. Go out there and throw strikes. Do what I do that makes me good. Use the sinker and get ahead of guys and pitch to contact."
Philadelphia Phillies
The rookie who exceeded expectations through his first four appearances hasn't been alone. Nola's command has been off. Sanchez has a 6.11 ERA since the break and missed over the middle often with his sinker Sunday in Arizona en route to career-highs in runs (7) and hits allowed (12). Suarez has made one start because of a lower back injury.
At 70-50, the Phillies still have a 98.7% chance to make the playoffs even after their extended rut. So, as has been the case all summer, it's only October that truly matters. If Suarez is back healthy and pitching then as he did in April and May, if Sanchez and Nola are closer to their first-half selves, the Phils will have a great chance to make another deep run.
If they get to October with only Wheeler as a reliable six- or seven-inning option, they could be a quick out in the NLDS.
They are at least getting healthier. Suarez could be back late next week. Taijuan Walker returned on Tuesday, and while he likely won't be a factor in the postseason, he will eat innings over eight or nine starts.
The Phils have Wheeler going Thursday night against the Nationals. It's a good matchup for him against a lesser offense that often tries to steal its way to success. Wheeler controls the running game as well as any right-hander by varying his times to the plate, and most importantly, limiting baserunners altogether. Since 2020, teams are just 20-for-33 stealing bases against him, an average of four successful swipes per year.