CLEARWATER, Fla. — With 19 days remaining until opening day, the Phillies paused for a break in the Grapefruit League schedule on Wednesday.
Sounds like a good time to take a step back and offer a few observations on what has happened and what is still to come.
• Offense is projected to be the Phillies’ biggest weakness this season, but the starting pitching might not be far behind. Cliff Lee’s possibly career-ending elbow injury leaves the Phils with a top 4 of Cole Hamels, Aaron Harang, Jerome Williams and David Buchanan. Hamels could be traded by the end of July, sooner if someone ponies up big, and regardless of how much the Phils’ brass tries to downplay Harang’s springtime back problems, they’re a concern. Harang turns 37 in May and with age comes increased risk of injury. How thin and fragile is this rotation? Buchanan came into camp in a competition for the No. 5 job. He could end up No. 1 on the depth chart sometime this summer.
• Kevin Slowey, Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, Paul Clemens, Joely Rodriguez and Sean O’Sullivan are candidates to be the fifth starter. Slowey’s experience might give him the edge. Meanwhile, Chad Billingsley continues to recover from two elbow surgeries. He has looked good throwing in the bullpen and to hitters and is due to get a more intense workout by pitching in a minor-league game in the coming days. Billingsley is likely to get some time in a big-league game before camp ends. If healthy, he could provide a boost to the rotation by late April.
• Lots of hindsight being exercised on whether Lee should have had surgery on his elbow last summer. At the time, he had been examined by several doctors, including Phillies team physician Michael Ciccotti and industry giants David Altchek and James Andrews. We’ll let Lee take it from here:
“All three are the best in that area,” the pitcher said. “And they all said last year it's in the upper 90s percent chance it'll heal just fine with rest and like three percent chance you might need surgery. Obviously you're going to take your chances on rest and rehab, and that's what we did. So potentially I'm the three percent that needs surgery.”
• Asked a rival scout what stood out to him at Phillies’ camp and he didn’t hesitate: “The Rule 5 kid. Nice pick.” Yes, Odubel Herrera, plucked out of the Texas system, has looked so good, especially with the bat and on the base paths, that there appears to be no question he’ll break with the team. He might even be the opening day left fielder.
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• Predictably, the bullpen has looked good in camp. It should be this team’s strength. Three weeks before opening day, there appear to be four locks in a seven-man 'pen: Jonathan Papelbon, Ken Giles, Jake Diekman and Justin De Fratus. Rule 5 lefty Andy Oliver, who converted to the bullpen last season, has impressed club officials with his pop and ability to keep his slider down. With the rebuild on, this team should find a way to keep him around and see if he has something. Luis Garcia finally seems to be relaxing and letting his power arm do the work. He’s a good bet to make the club as a host of others (Mario Hollands, Slowey if he’s not in the rotation) vie for the last spot.
• Word out of minor-league camp is that the Phillies might have something in 20-year-old right-hander Victor Arano, one of two players picked up from the Dodgers for Roberto Hernandez last August. The 6-2 Arano throws in the low 90s and scouts believe there’s more to come. He has a good feel for his secondary pitches and some mound savvy. He’ll be someone to watch at the Single A level this season.
• Manager Ryne Sandberg has closely watched Carlos Ruiz’s time behind the plate this spring and will continue to do so during the season. Ruiz, 36, is the oldest regular catcher in the majors. The Phils’ backup catcher could get 50 to 70 games behind the plate, according to GM Ruben Amaro Jr. Cameron Rupp, Koyie Hill and Rene Garcia remain the in-house candidates, but the team has scouts monitoring other camps. Austin Romine is out of options with the Yankees and could be attractive. Welington Castillo (Cubs) and Dioner Navarro (Blue Jays) are also available.
• “His body looks better, he’s swinging better and he’s moving better,” one rival scout said of Ryan Howard. The Phillies are still looking to move Howard and are willing to eat a huge portion of salary to do so. A Baltimore scout has spent a lot of time peeking in on the Phillies this spring. The Orioles could have a need for a lefty-hitting DH.
• Agent Scott Boras is putting pressure on the Cubs to have power-hitting third baseman Kris Bryant in their opening day lineup. Bryant, one of the game’s top prospects, is having a big spring and is ready for prime time. However, the Cubs will gain an extra year of control on Bryant, pushing his potential free agency to after the 2021 season instead of after the 2020 season, if he spends just a few weeks in the minors this season. If you’re building a baseball team for long-term success, it’s a no-brainer: Send Bryant to the minors for a few weeks and get the extra year of control.
The Phillies, of course, are facing the same issue with Maikel Franco. If Franco spends 40 days in the minors, his potential free agency will be delayed until after the 2021 season. While Bryant is putting heat on the Cubs (he entered Wednesday hitting .435 with six homers in 23 at-bats this spring), Franco is having a quiet camp. Halfway through the Grapefruit League schedule, he has just six singles and a .207 on-base percentage in 29 at-bats and has not yet been a challenge to incumbent third baseman Cody Asche. Franco’s time will come. He’s too good a hitter. But he’s making the decision to start him at Triple A an easy one.