We're going position group by position group and analyzing what would equal a successful 2016 season for each individual Phillie.
On Monday, we began with the infielders. Today we'll take a look at the outfielders, followed by the starting pitchers, relievers and top prospects Wednesday through Friday. (Which means OFs like Nick Williams and Roman Quinn will be on Friday's list.)
It would be a successful 2016 season if ...
Odubel Herrera
The Phillies were so far removed from contention during the second half of 2015 that Herrera's success as a rookie flew under the radar, especially from a national perspective.
Did you realize that this guy hit .339 with an .865 OPS over his final 79 games last season?
The type of season Herrera put together last season didn't appear entirely fluky. He started out well, then slumped all the way down to .243 before raking in his final 305 plate appearances. He showed some gap power, he showed an ability to hit lefties as well as he hit righties, and though he walked only 28 times in 537 plate appearances, Herrera led the Phillies by seeing 4.01 pitches per plate appearance.
Those who don't believe Herrera can sustain that type of success moving forward would point to his extremely high .387 batting average on balls in play; the league average BABIP hovers around .300 and when a player's mark is significantly higher or lower than the average, luck is often viewed as a major factor.
MLB
Was it for Herrera? Well, he did hit .363 when hitting the ball on the ground. The league average batting average on ground balls last season was .245. But Herrera was also just 3 for 69 (.043) on fly balls, which was more than 100 points below the league average of .151 on balls put in the air. Speedy guys like Herrera, who also had five bunt singles, beat out more grounders than others.
So while luck of course played a role — seeing-eye singles, beating defensive shifts — you can't just look at Herrera's .387 BABIP and say he won't be able to repeat what he did last year.
A successful season from Herrera would involve hitting .290 or better again, but also drawing 15 or so more walks. He was 16 for 24 in stolen bases last year and that's another area the Phillies would like to see him improve upon. Baserunning has been a focal point of this spring training.
And from an extra-base hit standpoint, Herrera had 30 doubles, three triples and eight homers last year. If he can either get the doubles closer to 40 or the homers closer to the 12 to 14 range, that would also represent a big step forward in Year 2.
Herrera is currently dealing with an injury to his middle finger suffered earlier in the spring when he dove into home plate. He's missed eight straight games and manager Pete Mackanin is concerned about it (see story).
After Maikel Franco and Aaron Nola, Herrera is probably the last player the Phillies want to lose. This is a situation to monitor, and more could be known Tuesday after he's possibly reevaluated.
Peter Bourjos
Bourjos' best qualities are speed and defense. In his heyday in Anaheim, he was among the game's best defensive centerfielders. It was unclear entering spring training whether Bourjos would play CF for the Phillies or if Herrera would stay there and Bourjos would play left field. Honestly, it would be a bit of a waste to have Bourjos play LF in the small outfield at Citizens Bank Park.
But Aaron Altherr's injury opens up the possibility that Bourjos could play CF this season and Herrera could shift over to an outfield corner. Bourjos has played 39 defensive innings in spring training CF compared to 19 in LF. Herrera did not play a single inning last season at a position other than center field.
Bourjos' speed still stands out. A groundball to the left side of the infield that isn't fielded cleanly is going to be a base-hit for him nine times out of 10.
But in six big-league seasons, Bourjos has been a plus offensively only once, in 2011, when he hit .271 with a .327 OBP and reached double digits in doubles, triples, homers and steals. Since that time, he's hit a weak .231/.301/.344 in 910 plate appearances.
The Phillies bought low on Bourjos in hopes that he could revert to that 2011 form. But that was five years ago. It's unrealistic to expect him to get all the way back to that.
To have a (realistically) successful season in 2016, Bourjos needs to hit .270 and keep that OBP close to .330, if not higher. If he gets on base enough, his speed should put pressure on opposing pitchers, catchers and defenses.
But his value is really in his defense. And how many runs Bourjos saves the Phillies' pitching staff will be equally important to his individual success in 2016 and the reestablishment of his personal value to a team.
Aaron Altherr
Truly a shame that Altherr went down with a wrist injury early in spring training. The injury carries a timetable that could keep Altherr out until very late in the season, which stinks for a guy who had an opportunity to cement himself as a starting-caliber major-league outfielder in 2016.
Altherr's power stood out last season — he had 20 extra-base hits in 161 plate appearances, slugging .489. He also looked solid defensively in right field.
For Altherr, a successful season would just be healing on schedule and perhaps making a late-season return to the field, setting himself up to compete for a job in 2017.
Tyler Goeddel
Altherr's loss is Goeddel's gain. Unless the Phillies find an outfielder via trade or the waiver wire before the regular season, Goeddel will have the opportunity to play a lot, perhaps even every day, in a corner outfield spot.
Goeddel has been decent in Grapefruit League play, hitting .279 with a .354 OBP. He's a tall, lanky, athletic outfielder with speed who hit well enough at Double A in the Rays' system last year to entice the Phillies to select him with the first overall pick in the Rule 5 draft this winter.
The Phillies aren't expecting the world from Goeddel, or even numbers similar to Rule 5 pick Herrera's last season. But it sure would be nice if Goeddel could hit somewhere in that .275 range with a .340ish OBP and 20 to 25 doubles.
Look, the Phillies' outfield won't have a lot of power. They'd be lucky if Herrera, Bourjos and Goeddel combined for 30 home runs this season.
For someone in Goeddel's position, the best-case scenario is turning heads and forcing his way into a full-time position. Short of that, it should be a good experience for him getting on-the-job training in the bigs and hoping to display the kind of skills that can turn an anonymous 23-year-old into at least a bench piece moving forward.
Cody Asche
Asche gets listed with the outfielders because he will likely spend more time in LF than at 3B this season.
It's been quite the frustrating camp for Asche, who has yet to appear in a Grapefruit League game because of an oblique injury. Such injuries are sensitive by nature for hitters because of all the twisting involved in swinging, and Asche has felt better some days before having setbacks others.
If/when he can get healthy, Asche too stands to gain from the Altherr injury. Asche knows this is a make-or-break year for him. He needs to hit, simple and plain. His defense is not good enough to carry his .246/.301/.392 career batting line.
For 2016 to be a successful year for Asche, he's going to need to hit for more power. Even if he hits .240 with a .310 OBP, he could at least force the Phillies to consider keeping around for the future if he can slug somewhere in the .430 to .450 range.
Over the last two seasons, Asche's averaged 445 plate appearances, 24 doubles and 11 homers. If he gets that many PAs in 2016, he'll need to get closer to 30-32 doubles and 15-18 homers for it to be considered a genuine step forward.
On Wednesday, we take a look at the projected starting rotation.