Our position-by-position analysis of the Phillies continues with a look at what would equal successful seasons for the individual members of the team's new-look bullpen.
It would be a successful season if ...
Andrew Bailey
Listing Bailey first because he's pitched more than any of the Phillies' other closer candidates this spring and the thought here is that with how seldom David Hernandez has pitched, Bailey will be given the opportunity to close at least early in the season.
Bailey, 31, has the most closing experience of any Phillies reliever and had the most major-league success, too, before a series of arm injuries derailed a promising career. Bailey has 89 career saves; from 2009 to 2011, he had 75 saves and a 2.07 ERA for the Athletics and made two All-Star teams.
After unhealthy and unsuccessful stints with the Red Sox and Yankees, Bailey is finally healthy again and he's ecstatic about it. Early in spring training, he was enthusiastic about finally being able to focus on the movement and shape of his pitches rather than how his arm felt after throwing them.
Bailey had pitched four scoreless innings with five strikeouts this spring before allowing three runs on four hits to the Twins on Tuesday.
A successful 2016 for Bailey would just involve staying healthy for most or all of the year and filling his role, whether it's closer or setup man. The 1.70 ERA he had his first two years with the A's is not expected, but as long as Bailey stays on the field, he should be a productive member of the Phils' bullpen.
MLB
David Hernandez
Hernandez makes the most money of any of the Phillies' relievers — he signed a one-year, $3.9 million contract at the same time the Phils traded Ken Giles to the Astros. Because of the money and the timing, it was assumed Hernandez was the frontrunner to close for the Phillies. And he still might be, but a triceps issue has caused him to make just two appearances this spring.
Hernandez said earlier in camp that he really needs only 10 or so appearances to be ready for the regular season. Well, he won't come anywhere close to reaching that threshold, but that doesn't necessarily mean he'll be overly rusty. It's just my opinion that it makes more sense to ease Hernandez back into a routine than rush him out there to close at the first opportunity.
Hernandez has never been a full-time closer, but he did save 19 games from 2010 to 2013, including a career-high 11 with the Diamondbacks in 2011. He throws hard — 93-94 mph with his fastball — and struck out exactly a batter per inning in his big-league career. But he's also posted an ERA of 4.28 or higher in four of six seasons. His best year, by far, was 2012, when he had a 2.50 ERA and 98 K's in 68⅓ innings with Arizona.
Hernandez had Tommy John surgery in early 2014 and was able to return to make 40 appearances from June-on last season. In 2016, it would be a successful season for Hernandez and the Phillies if he can post an ERA around 3.00 and miss as many bats as he did pre-surgery.
The back end of the Phils' bullpen is not going to be as dominant as it was last season, when Jonathan Papelbon and Ken Giles blew only three true save opportunities all year. But with Bailey and Hernandez, the unit has a chance to at least be serviceable when handed a lead.
Dalier Hinojosa
There aren't many guys in the Phils' 'pen you can bank on making the team, but Hinojosa seems like a safe bet based on his usage this spring, his success last season and his ability to generate whiffs.
The 30-year-old quietly posted a 0.78 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 23 innings with the Phillies late last season.
Hinojosa is a fastball-slider-changeup guy who averaged about 94 mph with his four-seamer last season. He didn't command his changeup that well to lefties, but his slider proved to be a decent weapon, making him an effective reliever in 2015.
Hinojosa is a player to watch in this bullpen (much more on his story here). He could take a big step this season by expanding upon last year's success, striking out a batter per inning and posting an ERA in the 2.50 to 3.50 range. We all know how volatile and fluky relievers' success can be since the sample sizes are always small, but Hinojosa at least has the stuff to inspire some confidence.
Jeanmar Gomez
Gomez is another lock to make the bullpen based on how he pitched last season and his 2016 salary ($1.4 million) relative to the other relievers.
Gomez was kind of like the pitching version of Andres Blanco last year — quiet addition by the Phillies of a player who'd previously bounced around between a few teams and a few roles before having success in red pinstripes.
In 65 appearances last season, Gomez posted a 3.01 ERA in 74⅔ innings, allowing just four homers and 17 walks. The limiting of homers and walks are both obviously major keys for any reliever.
Gomez's ability to generate groundballs — 48.8 percent last season, 49.9 percent for his career — makes him a useful situational reliever with men on base. And his previous starting experience gives him the stamina to pitch multiple innings.
With Gomez from the right side and Brett Oberholtzer from the left, the Phillies have two guys capable of holding down the middle innings when a starting pitcher is unable to go deep into a game.
Would be a successful year for Gomez if he can just keep his head down and pitch well like he did last season. Middle relievers tend to be noticed only when they stink, so if Gomez is out of sight, out of mind, it'll be a good thing.
Brett Oberholtzer
The aforementioned Oberholtzer isn't thrilled to miss out on an opportunity to start for the Phillies, but he's thankful to have a team and a role after being traded by Houston in the Giles deal.
Oberholtzer has a 3.94 ERA in 253⅔ innings, and has made just three career relief appearances. So this will be a new experience for him and it will be interesting to see if he has what it takes to be successful in shorter stints.
Oberholtzer doesn't fit the mold of many of today's relievers because he doesn't throw hard. He's a finesse pitcher who relies on control (2.1 walks per nine in his career) and keeping the ball on the ground. Interestingly, lefties have hit .299 against him lifetime, compared to .272 from righties.
It would be a successful year for Oberholtzer if he can lock down the middle innings like Gomez did a year ago and if he can eventually find his way into the Phillies' rotation. The Phils are not going to go through the entire season with the projected staff of Jeremy Hellickson, Aaron Nola, Charlie Morton, Jerad Eickhoff and Vince Velasquez making every start. An injury or trade will occur at some point, and even if Adam Morgan is the first man up and there are numerous Phillies prospects on the way up, Oberholtzer will probably be stretched out at some point and given a chance to start.
The others
Can't go too in-depth on some of the other relievers in camp because there are so many battling for what appears to be two final spots. The assumption here is that at least one of those two spots will go to a situational lefty because Oberholtzer is not that. So that would probably mean one or both of lefties Daniel Stumpf and Bobby LaFromboise make it.
LaFromboise has done everything he can to earn a job in the Phillies' bullpen, pitching 7⅓ hitless, scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and three walks. Manager Pete Mackanin has talked several times about how he likes the side-winding LaFromboise's "funk" and ability to retire hitters from both sides of the plate.
Stumpf is a Rule 5 pick who would have to go on waivers if he doesn't make the team. He's pitched well this spring, striking out 11 batters in 9⅔ innings and allowing just one hit to a lefty.
Other relievers in camp include veterans Ernesto Frieri and Edward Mujica (who can opt out of his deal Saturday if he's not placed on the roster), Luis Garcia, Hector Neris and lefty Elvis Araujo.
On Friday, our series concludes with a look at the Phillies' top prospects.