With the Sixers' regular-season opener just hours away, CSNPhilly.com's John Gonzalez, John Finger and Matt Haughton take a look at the biggest questions for the team in 2015-16.
1. How many games will the Sixers win in 2015-16?
Gonzalez
They won 18 games last year and 19 the year before. This team should be better than the last two iterations.
They got Nik Stauskas for nothing. He looked better after the All-Star break and will be allowed to camp out beyond the arc and fire at will. They added Jahlil Okafor. Even with his free throw shooting and rim protection issues, he can rebound and score and he’s a legitimate NBA prospect. Nerlens Noel terrorized opponents defensively. He’ll have to move away from the basket and guard stretch fours now with Okafor in the mix, but there’s so much to like about his ability at that end of the floor, even in a new role.
They still need a better option at point guard (Tony Wroten and Kendall Marshall are coming off injuries, and Isaiah Canaan isn’t it), and depth remains an issue. But this should be a better team and more fun to watch.
The over/under is 21½. I’ll take the over. Call it 23.
Finger
The fun part was watching Sam Hinkie and Brett Brown walk back Okafor’s playoffs prediction. They chalked it up to youthful exuberance and “those darned crazy kids!” It seems like they all had a good laugh.
NBA
Another telling moment came during training camp when Brown asked the writers what the Vegas over/under was this season. When told 21½, the coach just nodded as if to say, Yeah, that’s about right.
Nevertheless, the Sixers should improve in 2015-16. Should being the operative word. However, going by the casino odds of 21½ wins, I’m going with 21 and sweating it out on the last day of the season.
Haughton
The Sixers have averaged 18.5 wins over the last two seasons. They need double that to get even approach the playoff bubble.
Things should become a little easier offensively with Okafor camping out in the post. I think he’ll team well with Noel, while they both have the ability to find open shooters setting up at the three-point line.
However, the team’s undoing will again be defensively. Outside of Noel, JaKarr Sampson and Jerami Grant, this Sixers roster is generally allergic to defense. Expect them to be near the bottom again in points allowed per game.
With all that said, I still believe this group could exceed expectations. Not a-trip-to-the-postseason exceeding expectations, but slightly better than the projected 21½ wins. Put me down for 27 victories.
2. Will Nerlens Noel average a double-double?
Gonzalez
He was really close in his first season, averaging 9.9 points and 8.1 rebounds. After the All-Star Break, he posted averages of 13.1 points and 10 rebounds.
In the preseason — and, yes, it’s only the preseason — Noel’s offensive game looked better. He seemed more confident putting the ball on the floor at times. And while his jumper still needs work, you can see some progress there.
I’ll go with a double-double: 12 points and 10 rebounds. But, really, whatever they get from him on offense is a bonus compared to what he provides at the other end. Steals and blocks. Pick-and-roll defense. Help defense. That’s where he should shine.
Finger
As of Oct. 28, 2015, Noel is the best player on the Philadelphia 76ers. And it isn’t even close. Headed into his second season, the power forward/center appears mature, respected, and the leader the Sixers want him to be.
“Of all of the anxiety that I have in regard to our offense, Nerlens is the most poised,” Brown said after Tuesday’s practice. “He looks like he’s played in the league for a few years. JaKarr plays a thousand miles an hour, Isaiah (Canaan) is trying to learn how to be a true point guard, you have Hollis (Thompson) who still is a little too fast and then the rest of the guys. But Nerlens really stands out. He has a poise to his game.”
So to answer the question, let’s say he improves on last year’s numbers. Say 15 points and 9 rebounds. Now if there is a club record for most 5x5s (at least five assists, rebounds, steals, blocks and points), Noel might get that.
He’s going to have a really nice year.
Haughton
Noel’s confidence is through the roof right now. You can tell just by how he talks about the work he has put in. The big man joked at the start of training camp about how when he came to the Sixers his jump shot form included holding his right hand across his own face.
Those days are long gone. Noel’s form is much improved and so is said jump shot. He knocked down several during the preseason, which should continue once things tip off for real.
Will that be enough to average a double-double? While I think the points will be there, with him defending more stretch fours and Okafor now gobbling up some of those boards, I don’t see Noel reaching double-digit rebounds. I’ll go with 12 points and 8.5 rebounds a night.
3. Will Brett Brown get a contract extension at any point this season?
Gonzalez
This will be an interesting storyline. The Sixers have won just 37 combined games in Brown’s first two years, but it would be hard to argue that he’s at fault for their lack of on-court success. If you go back and look at some of his personnel — Byron Mullens, Casper Ware, Jarvis Varnado and on and on — not to mention the unending roster churn, it’s remarkable he’s won even that many games.
Brown’s offensive system makes so much sense in today’s NBA — go fast, shoot threes, attack the rim — and he’s a terrific teacher with an excellent coaching pedigree. (Though I wonder how three key big men will fit into that system.) If it’s me, I’d extend him so he doesn’t have to go into the final year of his deal as a lame duck. That’s me. I just don’t think the Sixers will go that way and do it it during the season. Offseason, maybe. Hinkie is unknowable, especially with things like this.
Finger
With 19 and 18 wins in the last two seasons, Brown should have gotten Coach of the Year award votes. That might sound like a sarcastic answer, but it’s not. The challenges Brown has had to face the last two seasons and will face again this year are unlike those faced by any coach in NBA history.
Consider this: The Sixers’ two largest salaries for the 2015-16 season are for JaVale McGee ($12 million) and Gerald Wallace ($10.6 million). The team is also paying Furkan Aldemir $3 million this season and next season and Aldemir was arguably the worst player to ever be in an NBA rotation. Aldemir made Granville Waiters look like Karl Malone.
Look, as Philadelphians, we’re not good at giving people the benefit of the doubt. That’s a trait that dates back to Ben Franklin. So if the Trust the Process-ers can give Hinkie the benefit of the doubt, maybe Brown should be able to stick around for as long as he wants ... or can stomach.
Haughton
The numbers are the numbers and they aren’t pretty. Brown is 37-127 in two seasons as head coach of the Sixers. That’s good enough for a .227 winning percentage.
Yikes.
Nonetheless, Brown deserves hazard pay for some of the things he has had to deal with during his tenure with the Sixers. The Joel Embiid situation alone is enough to drive a man mad. Tack that on to the lack of overall talent and constant roster turnover, and Brown deserves a medal for lasting this long.
One look at how he relates to his young players and the results from his development program are enough to prove his worth. While I don’t think it happens during the season, Brown will get a new deal with the team.
4. Will Jahlil Okafor win the NBA Rookie of the Year?
Gonzalez
He’s got a good shot. The big thing for ROY races is usage rate and offensive numbers. Okafor should get a ton of run for them this year. Figure somewhere around 30 minutes per game when it’s over. That should be plenty of time to put up something like 15 points and 8 rebounds. That will get him in the conversation.
But I like Emmanuel Mudiay to win it. Again, usage rate and situations are important. Mudiay is going to get a ton of minutes in Denver, and there’s no one out there to usurp him as the Nuggets’ primary point guard. That means lots of assists and steals and points off drives. His circumstances make him the favorite.
Finger
This seems like a tough award for a big man in Okafor’s situation to win. After all, the voters for awards — you know, guys like me — are incredibly reliant on statistics. And without a true point guard to feed Okafor the ball until he gets bored, he’s going to have a tough time getting those numbers.
Besides, he’s just 19. Think about that pressure for a minute and consider what you were doing when you were 19.
Haughton
Like Noel last season, Okafor will be in the mix for the award. However, he could use the help of a strong point guard to feed him the ball in the paint. In case you haven’t noticed, PG isn’t exactly the Sixers’ strong suit right now.
Okafor will get his numbers, but not nearly at the rate of Mudiay (see NBA predictions). Denver’s rookie point guard will have the ball in his hands on every possession, and with malcontent Ty Lawson shipped out of town, Mudiay will have all the minutes he can handle to stuff the stat sheet every night.
5. How many different players will be on the Sixers' roster this season?
Gonzalez
All of them. All of the players. The Sixers could start a show on Bravo called "D-League Hoarders."
Finger
Brown has joked about the number of players who have passed through the door over the last two seasons. He also got a little snippy when he talked about how he wasn’t interested in coaching “gypsies.” That’s a great line and an even better nickname for a team ... Brett Brown and His Band of Gypsies.
So after coaching 48 players over the last two years — 23 and 25 — Hinkie’s quick trigger will cool down a little this year. Maybe the Sixers crack 20 and maybe one of them will be a point guard.
Haughton
Ah, the gypsies. One of Brown’s cooler terms during his time with the Sixers.
The Sixers shouldn’t have quite the same revolving door this season as the previous two. With a couple pieces in place for the future and the general youth of the roster presumably lending itself to more health, expect a bit more stability this time around. I’ll say an even 20 for the season.
6. Will Okafor and Noel mesh on the court?
Gonzalez
Depends on what you mean by mesh. Offensively, they’re both pretty good passers for young big guys. I do worry about spacing and whether Noel can move away from the basket far enough to open up some room and unclog the interior. But the big concern for me is at the other end. Noel was so good at protecting the rim last year. This year, he’ll have to step out and guard stretch fours. He’s athletic and long enough to do it. He should still get a ton of steals, and he’ll be a nightmare for the opposition when he gets to switch onto smaller forwards who don’t recognize/appreciate his quickness.
I just wonder how that will affect his rim protection numbers. Will moving him away from the basket defensively have a negative effect on his greatest NBA skill, or will he adapt and figure out how to impact the game at that end regardless of how he’s deployed? For me, it’s the biggest question for the Sixers this season.
Finger
I’m old. I remember when a team with two big men — like the Rockets with Hakeem Olajuwon and Ralph Sampson or the Spurs with David Robinson and Tim Duncan — was mind blowing. It’s a revolutionary thing when there are two 7-footers that can anchor a team.
But sometimes too much of a good thing is like when Van Halen traded David Lee Roth for Sammy Hagar. On paper it looks like a rockin' band, but who really prefers Van Halen with Sammy over Diamond Dave?
Are the Sixers Duncan and Robinson or Van Halen? And which player actually benefits from the addition of Okafor? Earlier, I wrote how Noel is poised for a big year and as you continue to read this, I’m standing by that. Two big men is a good thing even if it’s old-fashioned. Noel, especially, will thrive by using the rookie as a shield and a way to freelance more on the side.
Haughton
To me, there are more reasons than not to believe it will work. After all, the head coach has a history in San Antonio, where Robinson and Duncan created magic to the tune of two NBA titles.
Now I’m not saying Okafor and Noel are the second coming of the Admiral and the Big Fundamental, but Brown should know a thing or two about getting the two big men into a nice flow.
Offensively, both are strong passers for young bigs. The main thing will be if Noel can consistently knock down that midrange jumper he spent all offseason working on. If so, that will open up everything for Okafor to operate.
On the defensive side, Okafor will need some help and Noel is more than willing to provide it. Can he do that while being spread out defending forwards? That remains to be seen, but I tend to lean toward yes. Noel already likes to roam (1.8 steals per game last season) and he would appear to have the athleticism to get out on the perimeter and then sink back down to help protect the paint.
7. Who ends the season as the Sixers’ starting point guard?
Gonzalez
Does it matter? Wroten was an absolute blur when healthy, and he can get to the rim at will. He’s consistently among the league leaders in points generated off drives. But he can’t shoot from three or from the line, he has turnover issues, and he’s inconsistent on defense (and that’s being charitable).
Marshall is really just a guy. Same for Canaan and all the others. None of them are long-term answers. The point guard of the future isn’t on this roster.
Finger
I like Wroten, but that’s because he went to Garfield High in Seattle, alma mater to both Jimi Hendrix and Bruce Lee (who both attended the school at the same time). Marshall also seems like a mature 24-year-old; Canaan is a salt-of-the-earth type; and T.J. McConnell is the classic underdog who conjures memories of a former Sixers point guard named Scottie Brooks.
Nevertheless, the Sixers are in dire need of a point guard and the guy who is going to run the team when the rebuild is complete isn’t on the roster yet.
Haughton
I’ll agree with my counterparts that the point guard of the future isn’t currently on the team, but that’s not to say there aren’t some decent pieces here.
Wroten has his flaws, but you can’t deny his electricity on the floor. He pushes the pace at all times, can get to the rim at will (finishing is a different story), and is fearless on the floor.
Despite those abilities, Marshall may actually be the better fit this season. With Okafor now patrolling the paint, he will need a point guard who can get him the ball consistently in his spots. Marshall is absolutely more pass-first than Wroten, and Brown admitted during camp that pass is "king."
Sounds like a guy who will take over that No. 1 point guard spot for the time being once he gets back to 100 percent.
8. Should Nik Stauskas (when healthy) be a starter?
Gonzalez
Of course. The Sixers absolutely stole Stauskas from the Kings. (Vlade Divac has no idea where his wallet is right now because Hinkie lifted that, too.)
Stauskas was in a terrible situation in Sacramento. Everything from the front office to the floor was dysfunctional. At least in Philly, he knows he’ll have a consistent role and minutes.
Brown will encourage him to bomb threes as he pleases, and he should get plenty of open looks (the Sixers have steadily improved in assist rate; last year they were top 10). After the All-Star break last year, Stauskas made 42.1 percent from deep and 41.8 percent from the floor. I could see him averaging close to 30 minutes and 2.0 threes.
Finger
The second half of Stauskas’ rookie year is not something that can be dismissed. Sometimes it takes a guy a little while to find his bearings and if Stauskas found them while in Sacramento last season, he might be the only one.
Is he a starter? We’ll see. The Sixers have defense and Stauskas is helped with Noel playing behind him. They don’t have too many shooters, so perhaps that’s where Stauskas jumps in.
Haughton
Yes, he should. I’m sure the Sixers didn’t pull off that deal with the Kings to bring in a player they’ve had their eyes on since his days at Michigan just to come off the bench.
Now out of the NBA wasteland known as Sacramento, Stauskas will benefit from consistent minutes and chances drawn up for him in the offense.
The Sixers’ defense may lack a bit of bite with Stauskas in there, but like I said earlier, it’s not like that’s a strength of this team anyway.
9. How many more second-round picks (or players) will Sam Hinkie acquire by the trade deadline?
Gonzalez
All of them. All of the picks. If “D-League Hoarders” doesn’t work out, maybe Bravo will go for a show called “Seconds, anyone?”
Finger
There’s probably some kid starting eighth grade that Hinkie and his scouts have their eye on. He’s good, but his dad and his uncles only grew to be 6-foot-3. Baring a genetic-bending growth spurt, that kid might slip to the second round in 2022.
Hey, the future will be here before we know it.
Haughton
It’s only October, which means Hinkie has plenty of time to gaze across the NBA landscape and find some partner to pass him along all the second-rounders he can handle. The GM/president might even decide to keep one or two around.
10. How many draft picks will the Sixers have in 2016?
Gonzalez
I’m not counting the second-rounders. I think they’ll end up with four firsts: their pick, the Lakers (top-three protected), the Heat (top-10 protected) and the Thunder (top-15 protected). Unless Miami and OKC spontaneously combust — the cities and the players therein — those picks are locks to convey. The Lakers should be bad this year, so the Sixers might need a little lottery luck to keep them out of the top three. But this time I think things break their way and they get all four selections. Plenty of assets for Hinkie to fiddle with.
Finger
If the Sixers end up with four first-rounders, with their pick and the Lakers' in the high lottery, that’s enough.
Why be greedy?
Haughton
I’ll go with three of the four first-round picks. The Sixers will have their own, along with the Heat and Thunder picks. The Lakers will likely be very bad again this year, and I still think the league has another conspiracy theory left in it with L.A. getting the No. 1 overall pick as Kobe Bryant makes his way out the door.