It’s close and getting closer, but the season is funneling toward its conclusion. Nerlens Noel is running out of time.
Things were a little shaky for Noel to start the year, especially offensively. He played well defensively and protected the rim and looked good enough overall. Good enough. Not great. It wasn’t until after the All-Star break that this even became an actual conversation worth having. Since then, he’s been excellent. That includes Wednesday evening’s performance in Denver. Noel abused the Nuggets for 14 points, 15 rebounds, four steals, four blocks and two assists. All of a sudden, a lot of people are wondering who should win the Rookie of the Year.
For much of the season, particularly after Jabari Parker went down with an ACL injury, the ROY race was pretty much a one-man field. Andrew Wiggins is averaging 16 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.8 apg and 1.1 spg. He’s shooting 43.7 percent from the field, 32.5 percent from three (on 1.6 attempts per game) and 74.3 percent from the line (4.9 attempts per game). The three-point percentage could be better, but on the whole he’s been spectacular. Wiggins has scored in double figures in 19 of his last 20 games and 58 of 71 overall. He’s athletic and he puts up points. That’s the sort of thing that gets Rookie of the Year voters to notice. And he deserves the attention. He’s been that good, and he’s improved as the season has gone on.
Until the last few months, the ROY felt less like a competition and more like a coronation. And maybe it still is. But it’s not nearly the runaway it was previously. Look at Noel’s splits.
Pre All-Star: 8.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.6 spg, 1.7 bpg, 44.5 percent from the field, 56.1 percent form the line.
Post All-Star: 13.1 ppg, 10.1 rpg, 1.7 apg, 2.4 spg, 2.8 bpg, 49.2 percent from the field, 68.2 percent from the line.
That’s a significant uptick almost across the board. The free throw numbers are particularly encouraging. Before the year, Brett Brown said 60 percent from the line was the goal for Noel considering they had to completely overhaul his shot while he redshirted last year. He’s at 61.4 percent (on 3.0 attempts) for the season. For a 20-year-old rookie big man with an overhauled stroke, that’s not a bad starting spot. They can work with that.
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The last month was gone better than anyone could have hoped for Noel. He has seven double-doubles in March (and his 15 for the season is the most among rookies). That includes a monster performance against the Knicks last week when Noel posted a career-high 23 points to go with 14 rebounds, five steals and three blocks. To put that in perspective, Shaquille O’Neal was the last rookie to put up those kinds of numbers in a single game. Shaq had 27 points, 17 rebounds, five steals and three blocks against the Nets in his first season. That was more than two decades ago.
Noel obviously isn’t an offensive threat like Wiggins. But that’s what makes this ROY debate interesting. Because while Noel’s offense is still raw (though greatly improved), he’s been a contributor in so many other areas. He leads all rookies in rebounds, blocks and steals. That’s impressive, but this is significant: He is the only player in the NBA to be in the top 10 in blocks and steals per game. Not the only rookie. The only player.
He has also rapidly become one of the best rim protectors in the league. We pointed that out earlier this year, but it’s worth revisiting just to underscore what Noel has managed. According to NBA.com, opponents are shooting just 44.7 percent at the rim against him. That’s not just good for a rookie, that’s top-tier for any player in the NBA. It’s better than vaunted rim protectors DeAndre Jordan, Anthony Davis, Andre Drummond and Hassan Whiteside, among many, many others.
Coming out of college, Noel was projected as an athletic big man who could run the floor and play defense. He’s been better than that. He’s hyperactive defensively at the rim and in the passing lanes. And while he still has a long way to go on his offensive game, he’s shown flashes where you can imagine him being serviceable at that end over time. He’s already demonstrated an ability to run the break and catch whatever lobs are thrown his way. And for a young big man, he’s a good passer.
The question is whether he’s the rookie of the year. It’s close. Really close. My current rankings:
5b. Zach LaVine: When he’s gotten minutes, he’s been pretty good. With Ricky Rubio out of the lineup earlier this year, LaVine showed athleticism and an aptitude for running the point. With Rubio in and out of the lineup again over the last two weeks, LaVine is averaging 16 ppg, 4.4 apg, 4.3 rpg. He’s improved his three-point shooting, and over that same period he’s hitting 42.6 percent from the floor and 83.9 percent from the line. Those are solid numbers for a rookie who’s had an ever-changing role this year.
5a. Marcus Smart: He’s second in assists and third in steals per game among rookies. He’s a pretty good rebounder for a guard, and he’s been a better three-point shooter (33.6 percent) than a lot of people predicted. He’s also a tenacious on-ball defender. Needs work on his shooting pretty much everywhere.
4. Elfrid Payton: Leads rookies in assists by a lot. Solid defender. Good rebounder. Can’t shoot even a little. He’s hitting just 22.9 from distance and 53.8 from the line. Ugly. His offense is limited to getting to the rim, otherwise he’s a distributor.
3. Nikola Mirotic: When Taj Gibson went down, Mirotic stepped up. In March, Mirotic has averaged 20.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 1.2 blocks and nearly a steal. He can shoot from three (though he’s wildly inconsistent from game to game). He has some nifty mid-range moves. He hits his free throws. He only needed minutes.
2. Nerlens Noel: If it was the Rookie of The Post-All-Star Break, Noel would win. It’s not. We checked. Says so right in the name of the award.
1. Andrew Wiggins: It’s still his to lose. He remains the favorite. But the odds aren’t nearly as long as they were two months ago.