After years of debating whether Sam Hinkie’s vaunted “process” will work or not, a new fear suddenly grips Sixers nation. Is the team winning too many games?
Even with Wednesday’s loss, the Sixers have won three of their last six games. Their record over the last 16 is a somewhat respectable 6-10, with two of those defeats coming in overtime. And don’t look now, but as a result of this surge, they’re only two games behind the Lakers for not-worst in the NBA.
Which depending on just how committed to the process you are might be viewed as a bad thing. If the Sixers don’t finish this season with the worst record, it hurts their chances of landing the number-one overall pick in the draft and the franchise-altering talent that comes with it. Isn’t that what all this tanking was about?
Stop it.
Seriously, cut it out.
No, the Sixers are not winning too many games. And no, the process is not all about winning the NBA draft lottery and getting a generational player, though that would be nice.
The fact that the Sixers are turning things around a little bit can only be viewed as a positive. It’s great for the morale of young athletes. It’s important for recruiting free agents. Most of all, it’s a sign that the overall level of talent on the roster is improving, that franchise cornerstones Nerlens Noel and Jahlil Okafor continue to develop.
NBA
Winning too much? When the Sixers were 1-30 – sitting on 38 wins total in the past three season – they were losing too much, an embarrassment to the NBA and city of Philadelphia. Now there are people complaining because they're not tanking hard enough?
As far as the draft lottery is concerned, it’s secondary to the Sixers making actual strides as a basketball program. In all honesty, the lottery should be an afterthought altogether.
While finishing with the worst record would increase the Sixers’ odds of getting the first pick, there are no guarantees. Since the league went to a weighted lottery in 1990, the worst team has only ended up with the top pick four times, and prior to the Minnesota Timberwolves doing it last year, it hadn’t happened since 2004.
The difference in probability from worst to second-worst isn’t even that great. If the Sixers do wind up passing the Lakers, the chances of winning only dips by roughly five percent, from 25.0 to 19.9.
Is anybody truly concerned the Sixers are winning too much because of those five percentage points?
No doubt the Sixers would not have minded if they won a lottery or two along the way – it sure would’ve made things easier – but that wasn’t necessarily integral to the process. Hinkie’s plan was to acquire assets, and the general manager has done that. Okafor. Noel. Dario Saric. Joel Embiid. A slew of first- and second-round picks. Space under the salary cap.
At this point, the Sixers shouldn’t need the number-one pick, which this year appears to be 6’10”, 240-pound forward Ben Simmons out of LSU. If they get Simmons anyway, then good for them, because he could be a game-changer, but the club is no longer lacking in talent or the ability to acquire more.
There are pieces in place. There's no further need to tank. Hinkie and the Sixers front office should be able to build a viable contender over the next few years with the talent and resources they already have, with or without the number-one pick they may or may not get regardless of record.
The Sixers are playing competitive basketball. Actually, they’re fun to watch again. They’re even winning games, and may not be the worst team in the NBA.
You might as well sit back and enjoy it and stop worrying about things that are completely out of their control.