The American Athletic Conference hasn’t been your typical major college basketball conference this season.
Fittingly, its conference tournament this week at Orlando, Florida’s Amway Center doesn’t feature a typical No. 1 seed in head coach Fran Dunphy’s Temple Owls (see story).
At 20-10 overall and 14-4 in conference play, the Owls earned the AAC regular-season crown and the top seed in the conference tournament. That would have the case even if SMU was eligible.
But, as they get set to head to Orlando, the Owls still sit squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. They have their maddening inconsistency to thank for the position they’re in right now.
The Owls have scored top-25 victories over No. 8 SMU and at No. 22 Cincinnati and No. 23 Connecticut this season, but they’ve also had inexplicable losses to downtrodden teams such as Memphis and East Carolina and let similarly bad teams such as Penn, South Florida and Central Florida hang around in games that were way too close to comfort.
The Owls were also smacked by Houston by 27 points and lost to St. Joe’s in overtime this season, with both of those defeats coming at the Liacouras Center.
This uncertain tournament fate comes just a year after the Owls didn’t make the necessary impact at the AAC Tournament in Hartford, Connecticut, by squeaking past Memphis before losing to nationally ranked SMU for a third time last season.
Whereas another signature win may have propelled Temple into the Big Dance, the Owls were left to sweat on Selection Sunday and eventually had their hearts broken when they were left out of the tournament and ticketed for the NIT instead.
Even though the Owls, who are led by senior guard and leading scorer Quenton DeCosey (15.7 points per game — third in the conference), are the top seed in this season’s conference tournament, last year’s fate is again a real possibility if they flame out in Friday’s opener against either South Florida or East Carolina. Heck, it could still be on the table if they crash and burn in the semis against either Cincinnati or Connecticut.
And the Owls know it.
“We talked about it a little bit today that we were disappointed as we were sitting here [on Selection Sunday],” Dunphy said Tuesday (see story). “We’re trying to focus our energies on Friday’s game and if we’re lucky enough to win that, we’ll focus on Cincinnati or Connecticut because we’ll know who we’ll play there. We’ve got tough games in front of us, so that’s our focus.”
When compared to last year, the Owls have a worse RPI (59 compared 39) and strength of schedule (65th compared to 54th). But the most concrete stat could be that Temple has a 4-7 record against RPI top-50 teams compared to a 1-8 record last season. That’ll help in the eyes of the selection committee.
But what’ll help the Owls most is winning at least two games in convincing fashion this week in Orlando.
Biggest threat
That would be No. 3 seed Tulsa.
The veteran-laden Golden Hurricane boast a potent offense that records 74.2 points per game, good for fourth-most in the AAC and just four points off of Houston’s conference-leading pace. Senior guard James Woodard is third in the AAC with an average of 15.8 points per game. Fellow senior guard Shaquille Harrison and junior forward Pat Birt back up Woodard’s production with 14.8 and 12.6 points per night, respectively.
The Golden Hurricane can get hot out of nowhere put games out of reach. Just ask Temple, which saw a double-digit first-half lead vanish during a 74-55 defeat at Tulsa on Feb. 24. Of course, that was payback from the Owls storming back from a double-digit second-half lead and eventually earning an 83-79 win in overtime just a few weeks earlier at the Liacouras Center.
Tulsa has its issues when it comes to rebounding and defending the three-point shot, but look out if the Golden Hurricane’s offense gets rolling.
Darkhorse
Let’s go with No. 5 seed Connecticut.
Head coach Kevin Ollie’s 21-10 Huskies have been unable to come up with a big win as the season has worn on. Since falling to Temple up at the XL Center in Hartford in early January, Connecticut has just two wins in seven chances against upper-echelon AAC competition. That includes a Feb. 11 loss to Temple at the Liacouras Center when Connecticut self-destructed and gave up a 21-4 run to the Owls to close the game.
It should come as no surprise then that the Huskies are on the outer edge of the NCAA Tournament bubble right now. In many ways, this UConn team is reminiscent of last year’s Temple team — one that just can’t get over the hump and get that last necessary marquee win.
The Huskies will arrive in Orlando a desperate and dangerous team. Forward Shonn Miller and guards Rodney Purvis and Sterling Gibbs each average at least 12 points a game and can take over at any moment. If history has taught us anything, it’s that anything is possible when someone puts on that UConn jersey in March.
Player to watch
We may only get one chance to watch him this week because his Memphis team isn’t all that great, but freshman Deidric Lawson is a dynamic talent.
Heading into the postseason, the 6-foot-8 forward is fifth in the AAC with an average of 15.4 points per night. He leads the conference with 9.3 boards per game and is a double-double machine with 15 of them this season. His most impressive stat line this year could be the 22 points and 15 rebounds he put up against No. 6 Oklahoma in a close November loss.
If he decides to leave Memphis and test the NBA draft waters after this season, Lawson is considered by many to be a lottery pick. And it’s clear to see why. Even Sixers general manager Sam Hinkie decided to get an up-close-and-personal look when the Tigers came to the Liacouras Center last week.
Memphis, the No. 6 seed, has a quarterfinal date with Tulsa, so get your look at Lawson while you can. The next time you see him may be in June.
Best-case scenario
This one is easy.
The top seed Owls run through quarterfinal action against East Carolina-USF and semifinal action against Connecticut-Cincinnati in convincing fashion like a top seed should and turn down the heat a fair amount before a tough championship game against either Houston or Tulsa, both of which have a top-100 RPI.
The Owls then come out on top in the title game to lock up the AAC’s automatic bid, have a calm Selection Sunday and maybe even move up the NCAA Tournament seed lines.
Worst-case scenario
This one might be even easier.
The inconsistent Owls have one of their flat games in the quarterfinals and fall to either East Carolina or USF, which finished with a combined 8-28 conference record this season.
That would likely knock the Owls right off of the NCAA Tournament perch and set up for another sullen Selection Sunday.
But so is life when you when you play with fire like the Owls have had a tendency to do this year.