Today we welcome a new feature called Running Numbers in which Dan Levy of On the DL Podcast will take a closer look at some interesting (and some inane) statistics in sports.
When Brett Myers moved back
into the starting rotation for the 2008 Phils campaign, many people
were cautiously optimistic that after spending the better part of last
season – both in time served and quality of performance – in the
‘pen, he’d finally get his head together to be a top-flight starter
in the league.
Okay, so we were probably more cautious than optimistic, but Myers did
prove himself as a closer last year. Take these numbers as a for
instance.
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Myers finished the year with
a 4.33 ERA having given up 33 runs in 68.2 innings, but if you take
away his putrid start to the 2007 season where the quickly-rattled righty
allowed 16 runs in 15.1 innings, Myers was down-right stellar after
taking the long walk from behind outfield fence to the mound.
Well, I guess in some parks he may have been down one of the foul lines,
but you get the point. Myers was great out of the bullpen, recording
21 saves while only blowing three (ok, really four) and keeping a nice-and-tidy
3.14 ERA in games he pitched in, but didn’t start. In fact,
that number is skewed by two really poor outings. He gave up four runs
on May 23rd at Florida in a game the Phils won in ten and
we all remember Myers’ role in the September 5th game in
Atlanta that saw both he and Tom Gordon combine to give up seven runs
in two innings to blow a sure-fire division win and start what seemed
at the time to be the beginning of the end for the Fightins’ playoff
hopes.
It wasn’t just the Mets’
implosion in September that got the Phils to the playoffs. Shaking
off the shock of that loss to the Braves and riding some hot bats, the
Phils took leads into the late innings of nearly every game in September,
and Myers shut the door on the opposing lineup in the ninth, giving
up just three runs in 15.1 innings the rest of the way home, while going
2-1 with seven saves to only one blown. And it was Big Brett on
the mound to seal the deal in the glove-in-the-air-look-how-big-my-balls-are
moment I’ll never forget as long as I live, getting the Phillies to
the playoffs for the first time since two years after my Bar Mitzvah.
And I’m 30.
Myers was great out of the
bullpen in 2007, but the Phillies still needed to bolster their pitching
staff in the offseason. With very little on the free agent market
and an unwillingness to pay mid-season-pickup Kyle Loshe top off-season
dollar, the Phillies brass orchestrated a magnificent trade with the
Astros to get Brad Lidge to anchor the bullpen. But what about
Myers? Well, he’d move back into the rotation, we were assured.
And we bought it. We took the bait, and remained stuck on that
damn line for 17 starts this season – 13 of them miserable.
Not only were we duped by the Phillies that Myers could regain his form
from before last year and make an important contribution to the rotation,
we somehow glossed over the fact that Myers was never that great of
a starting pitcher anyway. Coming in to 2007, he was 54-40 with an ERA
well over 4.00 for his career. He’d never won even 15 games
and while being touted as somewhat of a strikeout pitcher, he’d never
fanned more than 208 batters in a season. He was never an ace, so why
was he promoted like one? Because they had nothing else?
News
Brett wasn’t just put into
the rotation, he was put AT THE TOP OF IT. Less we forget, he didn’t
even WANT to be a starter anymore. Getting the nod to start the
season was as much as thank-you to Myers as a ‘don’t think you’re
getting Ryan Howard money in arbitration’ signal to true-ace Cole
Hamels. So as Myers planned to step back on to the rubber every
five days we hoped with cautious optimism.
Oops.
Myers reverted back to his
old self: bad starting pitcher. He was 3-9 this season with a
5.84 ERA before being fitted for an Iron Pigs jersey that he may never
take off. The only reason he lasted this long in the Phils rotation
is because they have no one to take his place. RJ Swindle, a man
whose name sounds like it was gripped from the pages of a terrible 50’s
movie script, has been called up to throw slop after Jamie-Moyer’s
slop in hopes that the Phillies can right the ship while Myers figures
things out. I can’t wait to see two guys throwing in the mid
80’s while we all hold our breath as a fan base that professional
hitters won’t figure it out at some point. I have goosebumps…from
the night sweats I’m getting thinking about this.
Myers should feel lucky he’s
only 3-9 this year. In his 17 starts, he’s recorded 305 outs,
88 (28.9%) by strikeout. In his three(!) wins, he jumps to nearly
35% of his outs by the K. His strikeout/walk ratio is 6:1 in games he’s
won. In all other games, it’s 1.6:1.What’s interesting is
that not only does Myers’ K/out ratio drop in his losses (28.4%) it’s
actually worse in his no-decisions (24.7%). Leaving out the hard-luck,
ten-strikeout ND to the Giants on May 3, Myers’ ratio falls to a paltry
16.7% in the other four games. He is giving up an astronomical
.65 runs per inning this season, including .72/IP in losses. But
in his no-decisions that number goes up to .85/IP (and 1.05/IP if you
leave out the Giants outing).
Excusing Myers’ first ND
at the hands of Tom Gordon’s season-opening mound debacle, Myers could
easily have three additional losses. On April 22nd
when he left the game losing 6-4 but the Phils came back to beat Colorado
8-6. On June 15 he left the game against the Cardinals down 6-4
before the Phils charged back again, this time falling in 10 as Gordon
and Chase Utley harnessed their inner Bad News Bears (before the Astrodome
game, obviously) to literally fumble away a needed victory. On
June 27th he gave up just enough at Texas to get pulled before
letting Clay Condrey pick up the pieces to earn the loss.
If not for the bats, Myers
could actually be 3-12. Before the All-Star break. Before
July.
He says he’s healthy.
Pundits around town are looking for any excuse that he might not be
right physically, but there are no signs. I think it’s in his
head. Brett can’t handle Philly anymore. Just like Gavin
Floyd couldn’t handle it. There’s too much pressure in this
city. Hey, some guys play better in other towns. I think
it’s time we find out if Myers is one of those guys. That is….if
anyone will take him.