It's not every year a running back is taken in round one of the NFL draft, let alone inside the top 10. Ezekiel Elliot is hoping to become the latest to buck that trend in 2016, and the Eagles are thought to be an intriguing possibility for the Ohio State product.
By now, everybody no doubt is aware of the concerns. A running back's prime is typically shorter than that of any other position, quality ball-carriers can be and often are found later on in the draft, plus most are only as good as the offensive line in front of them in the first place. If that's the case, how could Elliott be worth the eighth overall pick?
That being said, a great back can change the entire complexion of an offense. Think three-time rushing champion Adrian Peterson or 2015 Offensive Rookie of the Year Todd Gurley. If Elliott truly is in the mold of those talents, teams would gladly accept a shortened career and build around a runner.
The question is whether Elliott really is that good. We've been duped before by running back prospects early in the draft, and the Eagles can't afford a bust at eight. Should they go in this direction, they better be certain he's the real deal.
Production
2015: 289 ATT, 1,821 YDS, 6.3 AVG, 23 TD in 13 games
2014: 273 ATT, 1,878 YDS, 6.9 AVG, 18 TD in 15 games
2013: 30 ATT, 262 YDS, 8.7 AVG, 2 TD in 7 games
In addition to his obviously outstanding numbers on the ground -- fifth in the nation last season, third in 2014 -- Elliott was productive through the air as well. Over the past two seasons, he hauled in a combined 55 passes for 426 yards, enough to go over 2,000 yards from scrimmage both years. On the other hand, his only touchdown catch came as a true freshman, which seems like a strange anomaly.
NFL
The numbers speak for themselves, as does the title of 2015 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year. The only knock would be heavy workloads as a sophomore and junior and how that might affect Elliott at the next level. Last season, his 289 carries were good for seventh in the nation. More than likely there is plenty of tread left on the tires, but the wear and tear on Elliott's body already is something to at least think about.
Measureables
Height: 6-0
Weight: 225
40-yard dash: 4.47
Vertical: 32.5"
Broad jump: 118.0"
At 6'0", 225, Elliott certainly has the frame to hold up for 20-plus carries per week. In fact, last season he got better as the game wore on, rushing for 1,142 of his 1,821 yards in the second half with a 7.1 average that was nearly a full yard better than his mark for the year.
Yet as evidenced by his time in the 40, Elliott isn't merely a between-the-tackles bruiser. He has the ability to make would-be tacklers miss and run away from the defense as well, rare qualities for a back his size. In terms of athleticism for the position, Elliott looks like the total package.
Fit
Running back is perhaps the most underrated need on the Eagles' roster. A one-two punch of Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles sounds great in theory, but Mathews is injury prone, while Sproles turns 33 and is entering the final year of his contract. Kenjon Barner is serviceable at best and most definitely not the long-term solution.
Elliott could become the Eagles' full-time, three-down back within one year. His talent as a runner is not in question, he's demonstrated the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, plus is a willing pass protector as well. There aren't many backs that come out of college with all three traits, and far fewer who also possess Elliott's insane measureables.
One could argue Elliott still isn't an absolutely perfect fit for head coach Doug Pederson's offense. The Kansas City Chiefs have Jamaal Charles. Pederson's mentor, Andy Reid, always had Brian Westbrook and LeSean McCoy with the Eagles. These are elite dual threats, and while Elliott is a very capable receiver, he may not quite be on their level in that department. It's a small complaint, but something to consider.
The pick?
There isn't much to say negative about Elliott, who regardless of what position he plays is one of the most complete prospects in the draft. It would not be surprising at all if he's not available when the Eagles are on the clock. Heck, he could come off the board in the top five and nobody would be surprised.
If the Eagles do have a shot, they will surely weigh how Elliott might transform the entire offense. Having a special back that defenses have to game-plan for would take so much pressure off of the quarterback and defense, even the offensive line if he's that good.
But there's the catch. Elliott is only worth the eighth pick if he is a Peterson- or Gurley-caliber back. Quality ball-carriers who can catch the football and pass protect come from the second and third rounds too, so anything less than a perennial Pro Bowler is basically a failure at the top of the draft. That, in a nutshell, is why there's so much debate over whether Elliott is worth such a lofty investment.