Chip Kelly spent an hour addressing reporters at the owners meetings on Wednesday, and of course the topic of trading up to draft Marcus Mariota was broached.
Again.
And, again, Kelly downplayed the idea.
“More players are better than one player, philosophically," he said. "The history of the game — study all the trades. What set the Cowboys going forward? They traded one player for multiple players. I’ve got a better chance of hitting if you have more draft picks than you have less draft picks. That’s basically it, philosophically.
“I consider mortgaging the future giving up your draft, like for Ricky Williams. Would I give up a whole draft for Ricky Williams? In my opinion, no.”
While the trades Kelly referenced involved running backs Williams and Herschel Walker — and didn't work out for the teams acquiring those backs (Saints and Vikings) — similar moves have been made to land a quarterback in the draft. How did they turn out? Let's take a look at a few notable ones in recent NFL history:
1. Redskins-Rams, 2012
NFL
Redskins trade 2012 first-round pick (No. 6), 2012 second-round pick (No. 39), 2013 first-round pick (No. 22), and 2014 first-round pick (No. 2) to the Rams for 2012 first-round pick (No. 2)
Robert Griffin III led Washington to a 10-6 record and an NFC East crown in his rookie season. But after suffering a serious knee injury, he hasn’t been the same. Griffin posted the third-best quarterback rating in the NFL in 2012 (102.4), but that number has dropped to 83.7 in the last two seasons. The Redskins have gone 5-15 in his starts over that span.
All told, the Rams turned this trade into eight picks: Janoris Jenkins, Michael Brockers and Alec Ogletree have been starters on a defense that ranked 13th and 16th in scoring in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Barring injury, Greg Robinson will start at left tackle for the Rams for a long time to come. While there isn’t a superstar amongst Stedman Bailey, Zac Stacy or Isaiah Pead, all have contributed in one way or another.
The Rams still have yet to find a franchise quarterback, but what they do have is a team that fits right into the defensive-minded NFC West. The Rams got an impact player on each level of their defense and a possible stalwart at left tackle.
Verdict: Rams win
2. Giants-Chargers, 2004
Giants trade 2004 first-round pick (No. 4), 2004 third-round pick (No. 65), 2005 first-round pick (No. 12) and 2005 fifth-round pick (No. 144) to the Chargers for 2004 first-round pick (No. 1)
Eli Manning (picked first) said he would not play for the Chargers, pretty much destroying any leverage San Diego would have in any trade. He’s a three-time Pro Bowler and, of course, a two-time Super Bowl champion.
That said, the Giants won their championships thanks in large part to a defensive front that gave Tom Brady fits (and David Tyree). Would they have had just as much success with either Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger, who went 11th that year and has won two Super Bowls in his own right?
The Chargers managed to get a decent amount of talent in return.
Rivers (picked fourth) and outside linebacker Shawne Merriman turned out to be very good pros, with the former obviously being much better than the latter. The big difference being longevity, as Merriman’s career was derailed by injury (some of his success is also marred by PED usage).
Nate Kaeding was a two-time Pro Bowl kicker before losing his job after an ACL injury and eventually retiring. The other pick was used to trade for veteran tackle Roman Oben, who gave the Chargers a couple of solid years while battling serious foot issues.
Verdict: Giants win a tight one because of Manning’s Super Bowl rings
3. Falcons-Chargers, 2001
Falcons trade 2001 first-round pick (No. 5), 2001 third-round (No. 67), 2002 second-round (No. 48) and wide receiver/kick and punt return specialist Tim Dwight to Chargers for 2001 first-round pick (No. 1)
For a couple years, this looked like a good trade for Atlanta. Michael Vick was the scariest athlete anyone had seen and he took the NFL by storm.
With the No. 5 selection, San Diego took soon-to-be Hall of Famer LaDainian Tomlinson and drafted a future Hall of Fame quarterback (although they let him walk) in Drew Brees with their own second-round pick. The second- and third-rounders the Chargers selected were complete busts, while Tim Dwight was just OK.
Vick’s career certainly had its highlights — he led the Falcons to the 2004 NFC Championship Game, where he lost to the Eagles — but his career was derailed by his involvement in a dog-fighting ring. After he served prison time, he enjoyed an unforgettable resurgence with the Eagles, but it was short-lived, and he failed to win another playoff game. He is now a backup at best.
Even though Tomlinson retired at 32, he still managed to finish fifth all-time in career rushing yards and second all-time in career rushing touchdowns, including an NFL-record 28 rushing touchdowns in his MVP season in 2006. Imagine an offense with a four-headed monster of Brees, Tomlinson, Antonio Gates (who actually had his best two statistical seasons with Brees) and Larry Fitzgerald, whom they could have taken first overall by sticking with Brees and not trading down to draft Rivers.
Verdict: Chargers win
4. Chargers-Cardinals, 1998
Chargers trade 1998 first-round pick (No. 3), second-round pick (No. 33) and 1999 first-round pick (No. 8) to the Cardinals for 1998 first-round pick (No. 2)
Ryan Leaf is arguably the biggest draft bust in NFL history. Hard to believe many executives and scouts had Leaf graded higher than Peyton Manning before the draft.
Unfortunately for Arizona, defensive end Andre Wadsworth had chronic knee issues and wound up being a bust as well (especially when you consider likely Hall of Famer Charles Woodson was the next pick). However, Arizona did also manage to pick up safety Corey Chavous and wide receiver David Boston. Neither of those guys is destined for Canton, but both were productive, which is much more than you can say for Leaf.
Verdict: Cardinals win