After a pair of seemingly easy wins for the Eagles, they face what many believe to be true test in the 2-1 Jacksonville Jaguars. Doug Pederson’s team comes in with the league’s best run defense through three games, and they’ve allowed ten points in their last two games. Let’s look at the numbers and see if we can’t find some value.
(All odds courtesy PointsBet)
Eagles (3-0) vs. Jaguars (2-1), Sunday 1:00pm
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SIGN UP HERE Spread (ML): Eagles (-6.5, -275); Jaguars (+6.5, +230)
Total points: 45.5
Analysis: Jacksonville’s win over the Chargers in L.A. opened a lot of eyes, but I’m still not convinced this team is of the same caliber as the Eagles. Justin Herbert probably shouldn’t have played in that game, and it showed. It will be interesting to see how Sunday’s game opens, since both teams here have strong defenses, but they also aim for big early leads, so they can let their pass rush loose. I like the Eagles in a close, low-scoring game.
Pick: Jaguars +6.5; UNDER 45.5
NFL
Passing yards (O/U) – Jalen Hurts 250.5; Trevor Lawrence 235.5
Both teams have done well so far this season through the air, but I think the Jaguars will meet their match Sunday. In his young career, Lawrence has gone over 235.5 in just seven of 20 games. Darius Slay will stick with Christian Kirk, much like he did with Justin Jefferson to make him disappear, and their leading pass-catcher, Zay Jones, missed practice Thursday with an ankle injury. I also think the weather will be a factor in both teams’ ability to throw the ball.
Pick: Lawrence UNDER 235.5
Rushing yards – Miles Sanders 60.5, Hurts 50.5; James Robinson 55.5, Travis Etienne 25.5
Robinson has gone for at least 64 yards in each game this season, and I think Jacksonville will try to get him going in the expected dicey weather. I think Hurts will get his as well, as the Jaguars pass rush will inspire him to improvise more than he did last week.
Picks: Robinson OVER 55.5, Hurts OVER 50.5
Receiving Yards:
A.J. Brown 70.5 Christian Kirk 65.5
DeVonta Smith 55.5 Dallas Goedert 40.5
Zay Jones 40.5 Marvin Jones 40.5
Evan Engram 25.5 Miles Sanders 15.5
Analysis: Brown had a somewhat quiet 85 yards last week, as Smith balled out with 169 yards against Washington. Goedert was even quieter with 3 catches for 26 yards. The volume of targets Brown gets leads me to believe this number is too low. And Goedert is due for a big game.
Picks: Brown OVER 70.5, Goedert 40.5; Kirk UNDER 65.5
Anytime Touchdown:
Jalen Hurts +100 James Robinson +125
A.J. Brown +140 Miles Sanders +160
DeVonta Smith +175 Christian Kirk +200
Dallas Goedert +230 Kenny Gainwell +250
Eagles D/ST +475 Jaguars D/ST +550
Analysis: I don’t see a ton of scoring in this game overall, but if I’m taking a shot here, I’m going with Goedert. He’s a real matchup problem all over the field, especially the red zone. Brown as a red zone target has some value as well.
Picks: Brown +140, Goedert +230