NFL Week 10 ATS picks: Cowboys beat Packers, Titans bounce back


Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season features plenty of exciting matchups that will have a huge impact on the playoff races in both conferences.

It's also a huge week for a couple perennial contenders.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5), Green Bay Packers (3-6) and defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams (3-5) are all facing critically important games this week. The NFC East also will be fun to watch with all four teams in action, including the Philadelphia Eagles, who are the league's lone unbeaten team at 8-0.

What can we expect from this weekend's slate of games?

Here are our best bets against the spread for Week 10. All start times listed are ET. All betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Nov. 13 at 1 p.m. on CBS

Over/Under: 36.5

The Titans should've beaten the Kansas City Chiefs on the road last week but lost in overtime. Sunday's game against the struggling Broncos should be a far easier challenge for Tennessee.

The Broncos are a disaster. They are 3-5 and their offense ranks 30th in points per game, 19th in total yards per game and 31st in third down conversion percentage. Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson is completing just 58.8 percent of his passes (by far the worst mark of his career) with a less-than-stellar QB rating of 83.5 through seven games.

Denver's defense has struggled against the run, giving up 122.5 rushing yards per game and the fifth-most yards per carry (4.7). The Titans rank eighth in rushing yards per game (142.5), led by star running back Derrick Henry. He should have little trouble running all over the Broncos defense, helping the Titans dominate the time of possession battle and secure a bounce-back victory.

Tennessee also is 6-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last six games.

Pick: Titans -2.5

Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Nov. 13 at 1 p.m. on CBS

Over/Under: 49.5

The Dolphins are 5-0 in one-score games and 3-1 at home this season, so even though their defense has struggled a bit over the last two weeks, they are absolutely a better football team than the Browns.

Cleveland did beat the Cincinnati Bengals 32-12 in impressive fashion last week, but before that the Browns had lost four consecutive games. They've also lost six of their last seven road games.

The Dolphins have an elite offense with arguably the top wide receiver duo in Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. They've also scored 30-plus points in each of the last two weeks, and that streak should continue against a Browns defense that ranks 24th in points allowed per game and 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. Cleveland also is tied for the fourth-worst turnover differential at minus-4. 

The Dolphins need this win to keep pace in the AFC East title race. They will win the turnover battle and drop the Browns to 3-6.

Pick: Dolphins -3.5

Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at Green Bay Packers

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Nov. 13 at 4:25 p.m. on FOX

Over/Under: 43

Try finding a larger disaster in the NFL right now than the Packers. They have lost five consecutive games, including an atrocious performance in a 15-9 loss to the last-place Detroit Lions. Green Bay's offense has suffered greatly without an elite No. 1 wide receiver. The Packers are the sixth-lowest scoring team in the league at just 17.1 points per game.

The Cowboys are 6-2 with a dominant defense and the fourth-best point differential (plus-50) entering Week 10. Dallas also is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games, while Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last six games. The Cowboys are a good road team, too, covering the spread in 10 of their last 12 matchups away from Dallas. 

The Packers have shown nothing over the last month to suggest they are worth backing.

Pick: Cowboys -4.5

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)

Time/TV channel: Sunday, Nov. 13 at 4:25 p.m. on FOX

Over/Under: 40.5

This is essentially a must-win game for the Rams. It's hard to envision the defending Super Bowl champs returning to the playoffs if they lose Sunday and fall to 3-6.

The good news for the Rams is the Cardinals, who have lost back-to-back games and four of their last five, are an absolute mess. They rank 31st in points allowed (26.8) per game and have allowed the seventh-most total yards (368.9) per game. The Cardinals also are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the Rams and 1-11 straight up in their last 12 matchups versus the Rams. 

Keep an eye on Matthew Stafford. He's in the concussion protocol. If he plays, the Rams should get back on track after blowing last week's game against Tom Brady's Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Pick: Rams -1.5

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