How to distribute the carries among D’Andre Swift, Rashad Penny and Kenny Gainwell, the nightmare of the 1960s and 1970s and a look back at T.O.’s 2005 season.
Roob’s 10 Random Eagles Observations rolls along through the offseason with training camp just 10 weeks away.
1. “Ankle flexion” is a phrase you hear a lot before the draft when analysts are talking about edge rushers. The better a pass rusher is able to turn the corner on his ankle while maintaining speed and balance, the more he’s able to cut down the angle to the quarterback, which gets him there faster. If you can’t make a sharp turn past an offensive tackle, you’ll end up rushing out of the play, no matter how big, strong and fast you are. When you watch Nolan Smith at Georgia, you see his ability to turn the corner and take a flat route – a straight route - to the quarterback because of his outstanding ankle flexion. The more direct a route an edge rusher takes, the faster he gets to the QB. Now, ankle flexion hardly guarantees that a pass rusher will be successful. So much more goes into it. Derek Barnett was heralded for his world-class ankle flexion but it’s never translated into big-time production. But the Eagles believe Smith will be a consistent pass rusher in the NFL because of his assortment of pass rush moves, his speed, his power, his work ethic and, yes, his ankle flexion.
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2. The only player the Eagles have drafted in the last 20 years who had 10 interceptions as an Eagle is Nate Allen.
3. D’Andre Swift has gotten 10 or more carries 17 times in his career. He’s averaged 5.0 yards per carry in those games [241-for-1,213]. When he hasn’t had 10 carries, he’s averaged 3.8 yards per carry [123-for-467]. Rashad Penny has gotten 10 carries 14 times and averaged a ridiculous 6.4 yards per carry in those games [215-for-1,386]. When he doesn’t, that figure goes down to 4.4 [122-for-532]. Kenny Gainwell has only had five games with 10 carries, but he has a similar disparity [5.1 with 10 carries, 3.7 with fewer than 10]. All three backs are significantly more effective when they’re getting more carries, so it’s going to be challenging for Brian Johnson to figure out the best RB rotation and get the most out of all three of them. Eagles running backs only averaged 21.6 carries last year, and with Jalen Hurts throwing 30 times a game and running 10 times a game, so it’s going to be quite a tricky balancing act to keep Swift, Penny and Gainwell all productive and happy.
4. We all know how amazing T.O. was in 2004. But how about the start he was off to in 2005 before the whole thing deteriorated? T.O. had 47 catches for 763 yards when he was suspended. Both are the most in Eagles history through seven games. He had five more catches and 66 more yards than he had in 2004. He was on pace for 107 catches, 1,744 yards and 13 TDs. In NFL history, only seven other players have had more catches, yards and TDs through seven games – Marvin Harrison twice, Torry Holt, Steve Smith, Wes Welker, Demaryius Thomas, Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs.
5. I know the focus on the 2023 schedule is going to be the Bills, Chiefs and 49ers, and those are huge games, all in a row. Which is insane. But I keep going back to the two Cowboys games as the key to the season. Because the Eagles need to find a way to get past Dak Prescott and they need to find a way to win in Arlington and they need to find a way to get past the annual Dallas roadblock. They earned home-field advantage in 2017, but the second Dallas game didn’t matter. They earned home-field advantage last year because they beat Cooper Rush in the first game and the Cowboys fell apart late in the season. But their odds of getting to the Super Bowl without handling the Cowboys are not great. The Eagles haven’t swept the Cowboys since 2011. Since 2012, they’re 8-14 vs. their biggest rival – 4-7 at home with a five-game losing streak in North Texas. Prescott is 7-1 in his last eight starts vs. the Eagles with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. He’s got the Eagles’ number. The Cowboys have the Eagles’ number. The Eagles are the better team. They just have to prove it on the field.
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6. Imagine if the Eagles had a 6-11 record for 16 straight seasons? That’s the equivalent of what they did from 1962 through 1977. During that span, the Eagles went 73-142-9, a .340 winning percentage. Those were all 14-game seasons, and they averaged 4 ½ wins per season. Other than expansion teams, they had the worst record in the NFL during that 16-season span. Over a 17-game season that would be the equivalent of going 6-11 every year. The Eagles had one winning season between 1962 and 1977 – they were 9-5 in 1966. Of the other 15 seasons, they had seven wins once, six wins three times, five wins three times, four wins three times, three wins twice and two wins three times. From 1968 through 1972, they won 17 of 70 games. Sure does make you appreciate the modern-day Eagles. Since 2000: Five losing seasons, 15 playoff seasons, three Super Bowl appearances.
7. The Eagles beat the Steelers by three touchdowns and Nakobe Dean never got on the field. They beat the Texans by two touchdowns and he played one snap. They beat the Vikings and Commanders back-to-back by 17 and 16 points and he didn’t play. I thought there were opportunities for Dean to get some playing time on defense in blowout wins last year, but other than 15 snaps against the Titans and 12 in the first Giants game, he played only seven defensive snaps all year. Even in the first two playoff games, which the Eagles won by 31 and 24 points, he played only nine snaps. I think Dean will be fine this year and I can’t wait to see him work with the first defense at training camp. He’s quick, smart, physical, active and I love his attitude and work ethic. I understand Dean was a 21-year-old rookie and the Eagles felt there was value in red-shirting him. I just feel like a little more playing time would have helped prepare him for this season.
8. The Eagles have drafted five players in the supplemental draft, and two of them are in the Hall of Fame – Reggie White in 1984 and Cris Carter in 1987. The three others are linebackers Thomas Carter and Darryl Goodlow in 1984 and running back Charles Crawford in 1986. The only other Hall of Famers taken in the supplemental draft are Bears tackle Gary Zimmerman in 1984 and 49ers quarterback Steve Young in 1984.
9. How crazy is it for the Eagles to have just three 1 o’clock games in a season? It’s the fewest in franchise history, although they did play only four early kickoffs in both 2001 and 2010. (Gametime for the second Giants game on the last day of the season hasn’t been determined, so that could be another 1 p.m. kick). The Eagles have played 19 1 p.m. games in two years under Nick Sirianni and they’re 15-4 in those games and 8-7 at all other start times.This is the 17th consecutive year the Eagles have gotten at least four prime-time games and the fifth time in the last seven years they’ve gotten five. From 2007 through 2023, they’ll have 80 prime-time games. Only the Cowboys – with 89 – will play more. Not surprisingly, this is the 17th straight year the Eagles and Cowboys will play in prime-time. Going back to 1992, the Eagles and Cowboys have played in prime-time 27 of 32 years – all but 1994, 1999, 2000, 2003 and 2006.
10. The sale of the Washington Football Team is bad news for the Eagles and the rest of the NFC East. Because it means the Commanders at least have a chance to be decent. With Dan Snyder in charge, they never did. This is a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff game since 2005, that hasn’t won more than 10 games since 1991, that has a .427 winning percentage since Snyder bought the team in 1999. They’ve had nine head coaches since they won more than 10 games. The Commanders might not turn things around immediately, but with Snyder gone at least they’ve got a shot. With Snyder around, they had none.