If the past few weeks serve as any indication, we can expect a hearty debate over the next month as to whether a running back such as Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott is worthy of the Eagles' eighth-overall pick in the NFL draft. And if you heard vice president of player personnel Howie Roseman's comments on Monday, you already know the possibility cannot be ruled out.
For years now, the running back position has been devalued around the league, with good reason. Their careers typically don't last as long as other players, many teams seem to prefer rotating them based on the situation and the overwhelming majority are only as effective as their offensive line anyway. Any of these sound like sufficient reason to avoid Elliott at number eight.
However, this growing perception that offenses can just plug in anybody behind a stout O-line is one Roseman challenged while speaking to reporters at the ongoing owners' meetings. In fact, the Eagles' personnel czar contends the opposite is actually true -- that not only is high-end talent hard to find, it can also be a hugely advantageous.
"It's interesting because we studied this," Roseman began. "There's this narrative that you can get running backs in the fifth, sixth, seventh round and undrafted free agency, but when you look back at the last 10 years of guys who are really in the top 10 in rushing, those guys are high picks. And so when you find the special talent at that position, that guy who can run the ball, who can pass protect, who can catch the ball out of the backfield, that's a unique weapon.
"When you go back and really look at it... you see that really it is hard to get guys later, and the top guys are coming."
As somebody who's often made the argument that running back is the most replaceable position in the NFL, I found Roseman's comments interesting. So I went back and looked into it for myself, and sure enough, there aren't many top rushers coming from deep in the draft or out of total obscurity.
Exactly 50 different players out of a possible 100 have finished in the top 10 in rushing over the past 10 seasons. Only 10 of them were selected after the fourth round. 31 were taken in rounds one or two. 21 were first-round picks, and of those 21, 14 or two-thirds were from out of the top 15.
NFL
Even if we were to eliminate players who only cracked the rushing leaderboard once in the last 10 years, the vast majority of backs on the list are day one or two picks. There have been 26 repeat players in the top 10 since 2006, all but five of them having been selected within the first three rounds of the draft. That's not accounting for the fact that multi-time Pro Bowlers such as Tiki Barber or Ricky Williams were at the end of their primes 10 years ago, nor the likelihood current players like Le'Veon Bell and Todd Gurley have plenty more great years ahead -- all of them first- and second-round players.
Top 10 rushers by round (pick number)
Round 1: Cedric Benson (4), Edgerrin James (4), Darren McFadden (4), Jamal Lewis (5), LaDainian Tomlinson* (5), Ricky Williams (5), Thomas Jones*** (7), Adrian Peterson****** (7), C.J. Spiller (9), Fred Taylor (9), Todd Gurley (10), Marshawn Lynch*** (12), Ryan Mathews* (12), Jonathan Stewart* (13), Willis McGahee* (23), Rashad Mendenhall (23), Steven Jackson*** (24), Chris Johnson*** (24), Larry Johnson (27), Deangelo Williams* (27), Doug Martin* (31)
Round 2: Tiki Barber (36), Matt Forte* (44), Le'Veon Bell (48), Clinton Portis* (51), LeSean McCoy** (53), Ray Rice** (55), Jeremy Hill (55), Travis Henry (58), Maurice Jones-Drew** (60), Eddie Lacy* (61)
Round 3: Frank Gore***** (65), DeMarco Murray* (71), Jamaal Charles** (73), Stevan Ridley (73), Steve Slaton (89), Brian Westbrook *(91)
Round 4: Lamar Miller (97), Rudi Johnson (100), Devonta Freeman (103)
Round 5: Michael Turner** (154)
Round 6: Alfred Morris* (173), Latavius Murray (181), Chester Taylor (207)
Round 7: Justin Forsett (233), Ahmad Bradshaw (250)
Undrafted: Arian Foster***, Robert Grant*, Chris Ivory, Willie Parker*
* indicates multiple appearances
All of a sudden, draft "busts" like Thomas Jones and even the Eagles' Ryan Mathews start to look a lot better in context. You could make the case the only truly great backs to come after the third round in the last 10 years are Arian Foster and Michael Turner.
None of which is to say the Eagles should draft Elliott at eight. Actually, if this list proves anything, it's that there is plenty of running back talent to be had in rounds two and three, which depending on your viewpoint may only be more ammunition against taking one eighth overall.
Then again, the idea the Eagles or any team for that matter are simply going to fall into a quality running back later on in the draft isn't entirely accurate, either. While identifying talent at the top of the draft is as tricky as it is at any other position, it turns out it's probably equally the crap shoot later on.
Would Elliott's career last as long as that of a player at another position? Is he only ever going to be as good as the surrounding talent regardless? Maybe, maybe not, but based on this list, you could make the case that cracking the NFL's top-10 rushers four or five times is all he would need to do to live up to such a high pick.