Just how unlucky has Bryce Harper been with homers at Citizens Bank Park?


After a tough-luck game in which he could’ve had two home runs and a two-run double but settled for just the double, Bryce Harper remarked that "I came to the Bank to hit homers and it’s just not happening." 

Harper crushed two flyballs 402 and 383 feet. They carried expected batting averages of .980 and .990. Both were flyouts. 

"That wind is brutal,” he said. “But there's nothing I can do about it. Put the bat on the ball the best way I can, control what I can, and Mother Nature's not one of them.”

Harper referenced his tough luck at home in 2020, as well. Citizens Bank Park has always been a homer-friendly stadium and playing here was one of several reasons he chose the Phillies over the Giants, who were also after him.

Just how unlucky has he been at CBP? Let’s take a look back. Keep in mind these are just the home games.

There are at least seven examples since last August of Harper hitting a deep flyball at least 380 feet with little to show for it. The expected batting average of these was a combined .855.

See for yourself — each play is linked in the date:

  • 402-foot flyout knocked down by the wind. (4/16/21)
  • 383-foot flyout knocked down by the wind. (4/16/21)
  • 383-foot flyout to the warning track in center. (4/6/21)
  • 405-foot flyout to the wall in center. (9/8/20)
  • 390-foot flyout to the warning track in center. Rick Porcello reacts as if the ball was out. (8/16/20)
  • 405-foot triple off the top of the wall in the deepest part of the park. (8/13/20)
  • 391-foot double to the deepest part of the park. (8/13/20)

Hit on different nights, Harper could have a handful more homers as a Phillie. In going through this list, there were several other examples of line drives Harper crushed right at the centerfielder or plays he was robbed by a leaping grab. He's been very good as a Phillie and has 50 home runs in 979 plate appearances, but he's hit the ball even harder than he's gotten credit for on the stat sheet. 

He's also been a bit unlucky with line drives in general, hitting .613 on them as a Phillie. That's more than 30 points below the league average over that span.

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