MIAMI — It's looking more and more like Andrew Painter might not pitch for the Phillies, or perhaps any of their affiliates, in a game this season.
It could be even longer than that, depending on the results of Painter's latest round of tests.
The hard-throwing right-hander was sent for further evaluation after experiencing elbow discomfort during his rehab, Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Friday before a series opener against the Marlins.
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Painter had been set this week to face hitters in live batting practice for the first time since being shut down the first week of March. The Phillies' top prospect has spent the last four months rehabbing an elbow injury. He made one spring training start on March 1, impressing against the Twins and hitting 99 mph with his fastball. Within a week, he was shut down with a tender elbow. Tests revealed he had a sprained UCL, which often leads to Tommy John surgery.
The Phillies have tried to avoid that outcome. It worked with Aaron Nola back in 2016 when he was shut down for the final two months with a right elbow strain and was back for the Phillies' first regular-season cycle through the rotation in 2017. But all cases are different. Guys like Nola, Masahiro Tanaka, Anthony DeSclafani and Ervin Santana have been exceptions, not the rule.
Painter didn't pick up a baseball from the time of his diagnosis in early March until April 10, when he began playing catch. He progressed to throwing bullpen sessions in Florida by the beginning of June.
Painter was then set to face hitters in live batting practice this week, which would have been the next step in his rehab. He didn't because of elbow stiffness.
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Now, the Phillies wait to see what tests show. Thomson did not reveal what kind of testing Painter will undergo or when results will be available.
If it turns out that Tommy John surgery is necessary, it could potentially sideline Painter until the 2025 season. It's already July 7 and the operation typically requires 12-to-18 months of recovery. Painter is 20 years old and one of the most important pieces of the Phillies' future, so he wouldn't be rushed along.
The Phillies talked Painter up all winter as having a shot to win their fifth starter's job. He entered spring training in a battle with Bailey Falter and Cristopher Sanchez. It was the biggest and most exciting storyline of camp. It quickly went by the wayside when he was injured after the Phillies' sixth Grapefruit League game.
It seemed audacious to put Painter in position to debut in the majors less than two years after he was drafted out of high school. He threw 103⅔ innings last season at three minor-league levels, finishing up with five starts at Double A.
President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said more than once that he wouldn't hesitate to jump a player from Double A straight to the majors, even at age 20, if performance and mentality warranted it. He did it with 20-year-old Rick Porcello in 2009.
Painter's insane production in his lone minor-league season and even-keeled demeanor gave the Phillies confidence this could work. He dominated for Clearwater, Jersey Shore and Reading in 2022, posting a 1.56 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with 155 strikeouts and 25 walks. He entered the season as the No. 5 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America.
It's hard to say whether any of this would have happened if the stakes were lower and Painter was just another prospect in camp preparing for a minor-league season, but elbow surgery seems to be a rite of passage for hard-throwing young pitchers these days and no team is immune. There are 219 pitchers who have appeared in the majors this season who have undergone Tommy John surgery at one point in their career. That's 35% of pitchers around the league. Since opening day of 2023, at least 28 pitchers ranging from Single A to the majors have had Tommy John surgery, and that's just the confirmed cases.
The Phillies will hope to avoid that scenario, but it's a possibility after an unfortunate four-month series of events.