The Phillies reached a point this month when it became pretty clear that Andrew Painter, despite their hopes and best efforts, was not going to be ready to contribute at the major-league level in 2023.
Now he won't be able to contribute in 2024, either.
The 20-year-old top pitching prospect was shut down with elbow discomfort for the second time during the first week of July. When he first experienced the injury on March 2, it was diagnosed as a strained ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, the ligament commonly associated with Tommy John surgery.
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The Phillies took a conservative approach, trying to rehab Painter's elbow with rest and a gradual throwing program rather than surgery. But despite a recent MRI showing signs of healing, Painter's discomfort hasn't subsided and the Phillies' medical staff is now recommending Tommy John surgery, which typically sidelines a pitcher 12-to-18 months.
You can bet the Phils will fall on the cautious end of that timeline given Painter's age and importance to their future.
"Of course, you’re going to go conservative, follow doctor recommendations," president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Wednesday. "Nobody wants to have surgery."
Had Painter undergone Tommy John surgery all the way back in March, he could have potentially helped at the end of the 2024 season. But now it's looking like 2025 at the earliest.
Philadelphia Phillies
Painter has an appointment Monday in Los Angeles with Dr. Neil ElAttrache, who performed Bryce Harper's Tommy John surgery. If ElAttrache confirms the recommendation of the Phillies' medical staff, Painter's procedure would take place Wednesday.
"At this point, we think that’s going to happen," Dombrowski said. "He’s felt good at times, but unfortunately he has had a recurrence of pain.
"He was right on the verge of being a big-league pitcher. But normally, these surgeries, the players come back and do well for themselves. He’s still very young, has a long future ahead of him. Of course it hurts the organization, it hurts the team because he could have been a contributor for us. But more importantly for him, just feel for him.
"But he’s a youngster. He's just turned 20. You start talking about missing next year and coming back in (2025) when he’s 21, 22 years old. (Even) if there's a little bit of time delay coming back, building his stuff back up, you’re still talking about a very young man who still has a long future ahead of him."
The Phillies opened spring training with Painter at the forefront of their fifth-starter battle. His primary competition was Bailey Falter, who essentially won the job by default after Painter came away from his lone Grapefruit League start feeling elbow discomfort.
As months went by and Painter didn't progress far enough, the Phillies stopped counting on him as a realistic late-season addition. But this does change things in 2024, Dombrowski admitted.
"Short-term, I don’t think it affects us very much," he said. "I wasn’t counting on him at this point. If anything, it would have been a bonus if he came back.
"As you go forward, it will affect us as we look forward to next year. Aaron (Nola) is a free agent, do we re-sign him? Whatever else takes place. How do our young pitchers progress the rest of the year? Mick Abel and Griff McGarry. Other starting pitchers we have. I can’t really speak to the long term as of yet. I know we’ll be looking at him and thinking in 2025 that he has a chance to be in our rotation at that time. But that’s a long time away."
The Phillies had trouble filling the No. 5 spot in their rotation until Cristopher Sanchez began throwing enough strikes at Triple A to warrant a call-up in mid-June. Sanchez has since pitched well in five starts with a 2.77 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 22 strikeouts and three walks in 26 innings.
For two months, starting pitching looked like the Phillies' top need. Now, they have one of the deepest rotations in baseball. Will Dombrowski still add another starter before the August 1 trade deadline?
"I don't think there's the need," he said. "But I also don't think you ever close anything up at this time of year. And I'm not going to say much more because I'm not going to exactly tip my hand on what we're trying to do."