Examining Phillies' options to start Game 1 of NLDS vs. Braves

The Diamondbacks rotation in 2001 pretty much consisted of Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and everybody else. The Big Unit and Schill pitched in 70 games that season. The Diamondbacks won 52 of them, an otherworldly .829 winning percentage.

Manager Bob Brenly, not one to mess with a good thing, kept using the same formula until Arizona won the first and only World Series in franchise history.

It wasn't a new idea. Down the stretch in 1948, the Boston Braves relied so heavily on Warren Spahn and Johnny Sain that the team is still remembered by the doggerel, "Spahn and Sain and pray for rain" after winning the National League pennant.

The same outline seems to be emerging from the fog of the clubhouse smoke machine the Phillies use to celebrate home victories as they prepare to take on the progeny of that '48 club, the Atlanta Braves, in the National League Division Series beginning Saturday at Truist Park.

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola have been so dominant that, if you squint just a little, it's not hard to imagine them lifting a big, shiny trophy sometime in the next couple weeks.

Except for one thing. Neither Wheeler nor Nola is available to pitch on normal rest in Game 1. And even Johnson and Schilling needed contributions from a supporting cast. Looking at you, Miguel Batista and Brian Anderson.

When the Phillies' charter departed for Atlanta on Thursday afternoon, manager Rob Thomson hadn't yet announced his Game 1 starter. Barring a huge surprise — like using an opener or some such sleight of hand — his options are left-handers Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez or right-hander Taijuan Walker.

The schedule is a little odd this year. There are three off days in the best-of-five series: Between Games 1 and 2. Between Games 2 and 3. And, if needed, between Games 4 and 5.

That means Wheeler lines up to start Game 2 on October 9 with an extra day of rest. Nola can start Game 3 on October 11 with two extra days. And Wheeler would be ready on his normal day for Game 5 if needed.

Here's a look at what factors might go into the decision of who will pitch the opener and, potentially, Game 4.

THE OBVIOUS CHOICE

The case for Suarez: There can be an invisible pecking order in baseball and, all things being equal, this start should belong to the 26-year-old who is the longest-tenured of the candidates for this assignment.

But it's not just his seniority. In 2021-22, Suarez was a combined 18-12 with a 2.72 earned run average. Thomson talks frequently about how unflappable he is. And he's had some success against the Braves. In his only start against Atlanta this year he allowed one run on four hits in six innings on June 20.

For his career, he's 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA vs. the Braves in 16 games, seven of them starts. And he has good lifetime numbers against some of Atlanta's best hitters: MVP candidate Ronald Acuña Jr. and Marcell Ozuna are both 3-for-13 (.231) against Suarez. Matt Olson is 3-for-14 (.214). Ozzie Albies is 3-for-15 (.200). The batter he'd want to pitch around is Austin Riley: 6-for-15 with a homer and a 1.233 OPS.

One more interesting split: While his Citizens Bank Park ERA was 5.45, on the road (where Game 1 of the NLDS will be played) it was 2.75.

Last year, he showed the ability to come up big when it mattered most, going 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in five postseason appearances.

The case against: Suarez opened the season on the injured list with forearm tightness and then was sidelined for the second time in August with an elbow strain and had an up-and-down season when he was in the rotation.

He also did not finish on a high note, posting a 5.20 ERA in five September starts. In his final outing, on September 27 against the Pirates, he gave up six runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings and showed uncharacteristic frustration afterward. "I'm just mad at myself," he said through translator Diego Ettedgui. "You don't want to give a performance like that to anyone. And you want to finish the regular season strong."

Thomson also likes to refer to Suarez as a Swiss Army Knife, referring to the fact that he's had both experience and success pitching in relief, which could mean he's seen as more valuable as part of a bullpen mix.

HIGH RISK, HIGH REWARD

The case for Sanchez: The 26-year-old was a godsend after being recalled in June, solidifying the fifth spot in the rotation. And a case could be made that he was more consistent than Suarez from that point until the end of the season. In 18 starts, he allowed more than three runs just twice.

The case against: He has less big-league experience than Suarez and in two September starts against the Braves went 0-2 with a 5.56 earned run average. Albies, Riley and Acuña Jr. are a combined 9-for-18 (.500) with two homers against him.

THE LONGSHOT

The case for Walker: It seems likely that when the Phillies gave him a 4-year, $72 million contract last offseason, they envisioned the 31-year-old as being the type of pitcher they'd be handing the ball to in big October games.

He was durable, making 31 starts. And even though wins are a devalued statistic, he did lead the team in that category with 15.

And while Atlanta's high-powered offense shows little favoritism about which pitchers it victimizes, the Braves were slightly less effective against right-handed pitchers (.272 average, .837 OPS) than lefties (.288 and .870).

The case against: Walker's effectiveness steadily declined as the season wore on. His ERA went from 1.50 in June to 3.86 in July to 4.76 in August to 5.93 in September. He gave up 16 hits and 8 earned runs in 12 innings in two starts against the Braves.

NOTES ON A SCOREBOARD

• Both Game 1 on Saturday and Game 2 on Monday will start at 6 p.m. in Atlanta. Right-hander Spencer Strider and left-hander Max Fried, who is dealing with a blister, are expected to start those games for the Braves.
• The Phillies swept in the Marlins in the wild card round, but the Braves' offense will be an entirely different challenge in the NLDS. Consider: Miami's run differential for the regular season was minus-57. The Braves were plus-231. The Marlins were last in the NL in runs scored (666) and tied for 10th in homers (166). The Braves led in both categories with 947 and 307.
• All four division winners with the best records, including Atlanta, will enter the Division Series coming off five-day layoffs after earning a first-round bye. For what it's worth, in the first year of that format last season, three of the four teams that had earned that supposed advantage were beaten. That included the Phillies upsetting the Braves.