Let’s imagine the Sixers’ worst possible outcome for their first-round playoff series against the Wizards, one that does not involve high-impact injuries, a refereeing conspiracy or alien intervention on behalf of Washington:
The Sixers begin the series with Danny Green guarding Bradley Beal and it doesn’t go well. Green struggles to chase Beal around screens. As a ball handler, Beal forces switches when Joel Embiid comes “up to touch” or blitzes him in pick-and-roll coverage. When Embiid doesn’t venture up, Beal nails pull-up jumpers. By the time Sixers head coach Doc Rivers puts Ben Simmons on Beal, Russell Westbrook and the Wizards’ transition offense are rolling, too.
Simmons has seven turnovers in one game where the Sixers’ half-court offense is uninspired and he’s careless in his attempts to spearhead fast breaks. Joel Embiid has six turnovers in a game where his mid-range jumpers aren’t falling, the Wizards’ double teams are unpredictable and he tosses a handful of ill-advised cross-court passes. Washington plays at its league-leading pace and capitalizes on many of those miscues.
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Seth Curry doesn’t shoot enough when he’s open and never settles into a good rhythm. Rui Hachimura is a physical match for Tobias Harris and plays decent defense on him, preventing Harris from having any huge games. Rivers persists with all-bench lineups, and they cough up one or two leads earned by the starters. The Wizards create problems for the Sixers’ second unit by mixing in some zone defense. George Hill and Shake Milton don’t mesh as effectively as the Sixers had hoped. Davis Bertans catches fire and shoots nearly 50 percent from three-point range in the series. Former Sixers guards Raul Neto and Ish Smith make important contributions for Washington.
The Wizards look like a team that finished the regular season with 17 wins in 23 games. The Sixers lose their composure and the series.
None of the above is outlandish, but will it all happen?
We’ll say it won’t. The Sixers are more talented, and a seven-game series provides margin for error. Even something we didn’t mention above — a Dwight Howard ejection, or outside shooting woes by Furkan Korkmaz and Matisse Thybulle — seems unlikely to cost the Sixers the series.
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Embiid averaged 30 points in three regular-season matchups with Washington. He made 27 of 28 free throws in those games. Alex Len, Daniel Gafford and Robin Lopez each have six fouls to use, sure, but Embiid is not Shaquille O’Neal. He’ll convert a very high percentage of his foul shots (a career-best 85.9 percent this season) with no suspense involved.
The Wizards were ninth in both offensive and defensive rating from April 7 to the end of the regular season, according to Cleaning the Glass. Their defense has not been porous over the last six weeks or so. The Sixers, however, have the series’ three best defenders in Simmons, Embiid and Thybulle. There aren’t exactly a plethora of defensive weak spots surrounding them, either.
Though the Sixers believe they’re destined for bigger things, they won’t overlook this series. Rivers, Green, Hill and Howard will stress the importance of each playoff possession, and the Sixers will understand that inadequate focus could give the Wizards a shot at pulling off the upset.
Home-court advantage and having Wells Fargo Center at 50 percent of its capacity also won’t hurt.
“The advantage is we get to stay home; the advantage is our home crowd; the advantage is that we’ve played well in this building,” Rivers said Friday. “So that gives us some insurance. I’ve always thought — and I hate overdoing ‘the playoffs,’ but especially in the playoffs — I’ve always thought role players played better at home. They just do. And so with us having home court, that helps our role players even more.”
The better team usually wins in the postseason, and there’s no question that’s the Sixers.
Our prediction: Sixers in five.
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