The 11-4 Eagles host the 3-12 Cardinals Sunday in a game featuring two teams going in opposite directions. The Birds are tuning up for what they hope will be a long playoff run, while Arizona is playing out the string, and holding out hope for the number one overall draft pick. This should be a one-sided affair; let’s look at the numbers.
Eagles vs Cardinals, Sunday 1:00pm
Point spread/ML – Eagles -12/-700 Cardinals +12/+475
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Total points – 48 points
Analysis: The Cardinals rank among the worst defensive teams in football; they’re dead-last against the run and 27th overall and 31st in points allowed. They’ve allowed at least 26 points in 9-of-15 games. They’re also towards the bottom in offense, 24th overall and 30th in pass yards per game. The Eagles are getting healthier, with slot CB Avonte Maddox and G Landon Dickerson returning from injury this week. They gained 465 total yards vs NYG last week and will look to build on that offensive momentum.
Picks: Eagles -12, OVER 48 points
Passing Props (O/U)
- Jalen Hurts – 245.5 passing yds, 1.5 passing TD
- Kyler Murray – 230.5 passing yds, 1.5 passing TD (+185/-250), 34.5 attempts, 22.5 completions
Analysis: Murray has gone over 34.5 attempts in 3-of-4, and should go over again if the Cardinals are playing from behind as expected. If the Eagles continue to play a soft zone to avoid explosive plays, Murray will likely take what he is given and reach his numbers easily.
Philadelphia Eagles
As for Hurts, he has failed to hit 245 yards in 5-of-7, and the Eagles could very well pound the rock against Arizona’s last-ranked run defense.
Picks: Murray OVER yards, attempts, completions; Hurts UNDER yards
Rushing props (O/U)
- D’Andre Swift – 70.5 yards, 16.5 attempts
- James Conner – 55.5 yards, 13.5 attempts
- Jalen Hurts – 40.5 yards, 10.5 attempts
- Kyler Murray – 30.5 yards, 5.5 attempts
- Kenny Gainwell – 20.5 yards, 5.5 attempts
Analysis: Look for Swift and Gainwell to be used quite a bit in this game. Swift got 18 and 20 carries in his last two games; Gainwell has had 6 in each of his last 2 games. Murray has gone over 30 yards and over 5 attempts in 4 of his 6 starts this season.
Picks: Swift OVER yards, OVER attempts; Gainwell OVER yards; Murray OVER yards, OVER attempts
Receiving Props (O/U)
- A.J. Brown – 85.5 yards, 6.5 receptions
- Trey McBride – 70.5 yards, 7.5 receptions
- DeVonta Smith – 55.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- Dallas Goedert – 45.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- James Conner – 15.5 yards
- D’Andre Swift – 10.5 yards
- Kenny Gainwell – 10.5 yards
Analysis: McBride is a very feast or famine-type player, despite his heavy target share. I’m hesitant to play overs on Goedert, as Arizona has allowed the fewest catches to TE this season (55). They are softer on WRs, so that will be the play here. Conner has gone over 15.5 yards twice this season.
Picks: Brown OVER receptions; Smith OVER yards, OVER receptions; Goedert UNDER yards; Conner UNDER yards
Anytime Touchdowns
- Jalen Hurts -325
- D’Andre Swift -115
- A.J. Brown +105
- James Conner +155
- DeVonta Smith +175
- Trey McBride +210
- Dallas Goedert +240
- Michael Wilson +260
- Kenny Gainwell +300
- Kyler Murray +340
- Eagles D/ST +350
Analysis: Hurts’ ATD odds are the shortest odds I’ve seen, maybe ever. His odds to score 2 TDs in the game are similarly ridiculous (+175). I would lean more toward Swift or Gainwell for value, or Smith for his ability to break away after the catch.
Picks: Hurts, Swift, Gainwell