nfl playoffs

Ranking the four NFL divisional round matchups in 2024

It's down to the final eight teams in the 2024 NFL playoffs.

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Then there were eight.

With Super Wild Card Weekend in the books, only eight teams remain entering the divisional round.

That means stronger matchups and fewer margin for error for anyone hopeful of reaching Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas.

One slip up or underestimating your opponents' qualities could be costly at this stage, whether that be the No. 1 San Francisco 49ers hosting the No. 7 Green Bay Packers or the No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs hoping to once again conquer the No. 2 Buffalo Bills in the postseason.

Let's rank the matchups from least to most intriguing, even though each game poses unique storylines:

4. No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 3 Detroit Lions

Remember, one of the matchups had to be last, so it isn't a knock on the quality of either team. The Buccaneers-Lions clash features two former No. 1 overall picks with a clear chip on their shoulders -- Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff. Mayfield has turned things around in his first season with Tampa Bay but is a few tiers away from being elite. Goff got closer to that tier this season after a stellar year mixed with some avoidable errors.

Both teams enter the game with shaky secondaries but robust rush defenses. Offensively, though, Detroit fares better in both the passing and running games while Tampa Bay has one of the worst rushing attacks coupled with an average passing game. Detroit already won in Tampa Bay 20-6 in Week 6 with Goff outshining Mayfield, but things can always change in the playoffs.

But with this being Detroit's second home playoff game of the year -- with Ford Field's crowd living up to the hype versus the Los Angeles Rams -- the Lions have multiple key edges over the Bucs entering this one.

3. No. 4 Houston Texans at No. 1 Baltimore Ravens

The Texans-Ravens matchup is one of three divisional games that already transpired in the regular season. Baltimore won at home 25-9 in Week 1 in C.J. Stroud's debut, though both Houston and Stroud have leveled up since. It'll also be a chess match between two top potential head-coaching candidates next season: Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and Ravens defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald.

Potential league MVP Lamar Jackson versus potential Rookie of the Year Stroud is a terrific headliner, but the youngster will be tested on the road against the No. 1-ranked Baltimore defense in several statistics. Houston, interestingly enough, ranks first in fewest giveaways per game (0.8) while Baltimore is first in takeaways (1.8). That may be a decisive factor that levels the playing field. But with Stroud not having playmakers like Tank Dell and Noah Brown, this could be a game that swings in the Ravens' favor.

2. No. 7 Green Bay Packers at No. 1 San Francisco 49ers

The Packers may be the No. 7 seed, but their form to end the regular season has been on another level. After a 2-5 start, the youngest team in the league are 8-3 since with first-year starter Jordan Love -- who sat behind Aaron Rodgers for three seasons -- playing like a top-five quarterback. He'll be meeting second-year QB Brock Purdy, who is in his first full season as the 49ers' starter. Between weeks nine through 18, the two were the most efficient quarterbacks in the league by some margin.

Love, along with unpredictable running back Aaron Jones, can keep the Packers in this game with the 49ers not playing a meaningful contest since New Year's Eve. San Francisco will be well-rested, but the defense had plenty of questionable moments to end the regular season despite being a top-five unit.

The real disparity is on offense. The 49ers boast the No. 1-ranked offensive unit thanks to their wealth of talent and Purdy executing, while Green Bay's overall defense ranks in the bottom 10. Jaire Alexander's availability is also something to monitor for the Pack. The on-paper advantages lie with San Francisco but Green Bay possesses momentum and rhythm -- it should be a fun one between two rising QBs.

1. No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 2 Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs and Bills will have another installment to their recent matchup history. In the postseason, Kansas City won at home in the AFC Championship Game in 2021 and the divisional round in 2022. Buffalo then won 20-17 in Kansas City this season in Week 14. But this game will be in Buffalo, which will mark Patrick Mahomes' first non-Super Bowl road playoff game.

This should simply be electric. Mahomes versus Josh Allen always grabs headlines, even though Kansas City's defense has carried the team this time around. The Bills still ride or die with Allen at the wheel, and he delivered a four-touchdown, no-turnover game in the wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Bills will look to accomplish what they did last time: fluster Mahomes for as long as possible and overcome the potential Allen mistakes en route to a win. For the Chiefs, they'll need to ensure Kadarius Toney is lined up properly, if he's active.

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