Dombrowski calls Nola Phillies' offseason priority; Hoskins' case complicated

Four Phillies will reach free agency, eligible to sign with any team five days after the World Series ends — Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins, Craig Kimbrel and Michael Lorenzen — and the cases of Nola and Hoskins are particularly complicated.

Nola has been a workhorse, going six straight seasons without missing a start. He's performed on some of baseball's biggest stages. He's authored one of the best years in Phillies history in 2018 when he went 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA.

He's also had his share of inconsistency, finishing with a 4.63 ERA in 2021 and a 4.46 ERA in 2023. In between, he pitched to a 3.25 ERA in 205 innings with a 0.96 WHIP and the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the majors in 2022.

Nola will be pursued by many teams this winter. He is one of the top two or three starting pitchers on the market and his combination of stuff, swing-and-miss, durability and playoff experience will attract plenty of suitors, even some who might be scared away by the workloads he's carried since arriving in the majors in 2015.

The Dodgers badly need starting pitching. So do the Cardinals. It's a need for the Braves. And that's just where the market might begin.

The Phillies were unable to re-sign Nola last spring, and there's a chance the sides will again be too far apart in negotiations this time around.

They would like to keep him. If they can't swing a deal, finding a top-of-the-rotation replacement would become the Phillies' main offseason focus.

"He's our priority to try to sign," president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Thursday afternoon. "Unfortunately, and I don't mean this as a negative or a positive, it's just the reality, we didn't sign him in spring training. We would have liked to do that but we didn't get it done. So I can't tell you we're 100 percent confident we're going to get it done, but we would like to sign him and will be aggressive in trying to make that happen.

"If not, I respect the player's ability to test free agency and get whatever dollars they can that meets their needs. If that happens, that would be sad, but he wouldn't be the first guy that I've ever lost in free agency. You still have to plow forward, you still have to go ahead and try to get somebody to help you. But our goal is to try to keep him with us."

The top free-agent starting pitchers are Nola, Blake Snell and Sonny Gray. There are potential trade candidates like Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes. It's not a great year to be searching for top-end pitching, which could make the Nola negotiations even more difficult.

"Aaron, we love him, he's pitched tremendously for the franchise for a number of years. He's a Phillie," Dombrowski said. "We hope to retain him but if we don't, to me, that would be our number one area, we'd need to then replace him, we'd need to be in position where we have someone else who is a starting pitcher of quality in the rotation. It's either Aaron or somebody else."

The Phillies do feel comfortable with the rest of their rotation: Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Cristopher Sanchez and Taijuan Walker. All except Wheeler are under contract for at least three more seasons. Wheeler, 33, is a free agent after 2024 and Dombrowski made it abundantly clear Thursday that the Phillies want to keep him around long-term.

He also said the organization won't be relying on prospects Mick Abel or Griff McGarry to be in the Phillies' season-opening rotation in 2024. Abel has started just one game at Triple A and is still only 22. The Phillies would like to see him throw more strikes. Same with McGarry, who struggled mightily in his first experience at Triple A. Andrew Painter (elbow surgery) will not factor into their plans until 2025.

"Starting pitching depth is always a challenge for us," Dombrowski said. "We love Mick Abel still, we think he's very, very good. I can't say going into the season that we're going to count on him being one of our five. McGarry's gone through some adjustments. I don't feel that he's one of our five to start the season. Hopefully both of them at some point next year will be able to contribute.

"Starting pitching depth would also be something we need to focus on, but besides that, we need to have a quality starting pitcher to go along with the rest of our club and that's something we need to address (if Nola walks)."

The Hoskins conversation

Nola plays a position the Phillies need. His situation is more straightforward than that of Hoskins, who could very well be blocked by Bryce Harper at first base and by Kyle Schwarber at DH. Harper played 51 games at first base this summer in his return from Tommy John surgery and adapted well to the position. It might be his spot moving forward given his injury history and importance to the Phillies. It might be less of a long-term health risk than playing Harper in right field.

If Harper and the Phillies decide first base is his, it's hard to imagine Hoskins returning. The Phillies took off this season when they were able to use Schwarber as the DH and improve their outfield defense. If Harper plays first base and Hoskins is re-signed, that means a return to the outfield for Schwarber or part-time duty for Hoskins, neither of which seems realistic.

"In Aaron's case, it's very simple for me to say we want to pursue him because we're in a position where we need a starting pitcher. As far as Rhys is concerned, there are still some moving parts that I'm just not sure at this time," Dombrowski said.

"Our defense is important for us and I think it has shown. We were a better defensive team after the August 1 scenario that we had. But again, we have to converse about that ourselves."

A major part of that conversation is what Harper wants. Not whether Harper wants his friend and teammate back — of course he does — but whether he feels now is his time to transition to first base.

"It's more sitting down with Bryce and seeing what he feels," Dombrowski said, "but I also don't want to put it on Bryce, that's something we have to decide ourselves."