How have teams in Phillies' position fared historically?

The first question lobbed at Rob Thomson at the first formal press conference after the first official pitchers and catchers workout in Clearwater this spring was pretty open-ended. What differences had Thomson noted from Day One a year earlier?

The Phillies manager could have taken that in any number of directions. He's also been around long enough to know that whatever he said would be interpreted as an attempt to set the tone for the upcoming season. And, with that, he went full carnivore.

"I know that there are a whole bunch of guys in (the clubhouse) who are motivated," he said, going on to note that the full squad had yet to report and that the roster contained multiple talented players. Then he continued. "I think these guys are motivated. They've had two years of tasting it. Now they want to take a chunk out of it and swallow it, you know, and eat it."

Well, that's a visual that's hard to unsee.

The point he seemed to be trying to make was pretty simple. That after losing to the Astros in the 2022 World Series and then being upset by the Diamondbacks in the 2023 NLCS — by any yardstick the Game 7 loss was one of the most disheartening in franchise history — his team would be hungry. Ravenous, even. That they would use that bottled-up chagrin to fuel a furious determination to do whatever it takes to win it all this year.

And, sure, it could unfold exactly that way beginning on Opening Day Thursday at Citizens Bank Park with a 3:05 game against the defending NL East champion Braves.

On the other hand …

The idea that the Phillies, twice denied, will come back with a refuse-to-lose vengeance is appealing. It's also sort of beside the point, which Thomson surely understands.

Can it be assumed that they'll care more than other teams that came close but didn't quite make it to the top rung of the MLB ladder? Is it even possible to play at a fever pitch every day over the course of a 162-game schedule? If it were, is that even a good thing? Pitchers who overthrow and hitters who grip the bat too tightly tend to be less, not more, productive.

Thomson was likely referring to mental toughness and resilience. His team has already demonstrated plenty of that quality over the past couple seasons. That's a trait that can definitely make a difference over the course of a marathon season.

Like every team with a realistic chance of hoisting the big shiny trophy on the final day of the postseason, though, they'll also need a certain amount of luck. Avoiding key injuries, for example, are the first, second and third items on almost any club's wish list.

They'll have to be the last team standing in the National League while competing with other rosters dotted with All-Stars and MVPs and Cy Young and potential future Hall of Famers as well. And, if they survive that, they'll have to vanquish the best team that the American League has to offer. That's a gauntlet for even the best teams money can buy.

Again, it's not unrealistic to believe they could realize the promise of their unofficial World-Series-Or-Bust motto. The Phillies are listed behind the Dodgers, Braves, Astros, Yankees, Orioles and Rangers to win it all (and just ahead of the Mariners and Blue Jays) to open the season. Definitely in the hunt.

But perhaps you've heard of the so-called Super Bowl jinx. This is the puzzling pattern of NFL teams that lose in the Big Enchilada, more often than seems logical, having an unfortunate tendency to drop off steeply the following season, maybe not even qualify for the playoffs.

There's a similar, if less talked about, pattern in baseball. Every organization is different, every situation is different, every season is different. But, for whatever reason, history has not been kind to teams in the immediate aftermath of losing the World Series.

Despite the galvanizing effect that such a keen disappointment might be expected to have, the reality is that since the Phillies fell to the Yankees in the 2009 Fall Classic, 10 of the 14 runners-up took a step backward as measured by how far into the playoffs they advanced. Two (2010 Rangers, 2017 Dodgers) returned to the World Series and lost again.

The pair of exceptions have interesting backstories. The 2014 Royals were a small market success story, taking the Giants all the way to a seventh game before losing by a single run. The following year they knocked off the Mets and had a parade through downtown Kansas City.

They haven't made the playoffs or even had a winning record since.

The Astros lost to the Braves in the 2021 World Series then bounced back the following season to beat the Phillies. The asterisk is that Houston had also been to the Series in 2019 and won it in 2017. It seems unlikely, then, that any added mental spark explains their second title.

(The only other team in this span to win a World Series within three years of losing one was the Dodgers. They were beaten by the Astros in '17 and the Red Sox in '18 and failed to survive the Division Series round in '19 before finally breaking through in pandemic-wracked 2020. They'll take it in Los Angeles, of course, but the archrival Giants have made their disdain known by scheduling a Mickey Mouse ears giveaway for when the Dodgers come to town this season.)

But Thomson was talking about the second year after losing the World Series, the position the Phillies are in now. So let's go back and review how that's worked out.

The manager's graphic description of his team's savage intentions vaguely echoes the comment made by Bum Phillips after his Houston Oilers came up one win short of making it to the Super Bowl in both 1978 and 1979.

"Last year we knocked on the door. This year we beat on it. Next year we're gonna kick the SOB in!" he thundered.

In baseball, that hasn't been the case. Of the nine teams above that regressed or maintained the status quo in Year One, eight continued to decline or merely hold serve in Year Two. The Astros were the lone exception.

And the Oilers? Well, they were beaten as a wild card in 1980 then missed the playoffs for the next six seasons.

There are a lot of reasons why the Phillies could bring home the third world championship in franchise history this season. It's just that, to accomplish that, they'll need to do more than really, really, really want to.