Five Phillies Predictions for the Second Half

Dan Podheiser is a writer for NESN.com
but a Phillies fan at heart. These are his words.

Like the rest of the National League, the Phillies have been anything but predictable in 2010. For the first two weeks of the season, the offense didn’t just look like it was going to continue its normal torrid pace; it looked like Murderer’s Row. But for the last two months, the Phillies have fallen out of first place, as far as six games back in the NL East at one point, thanks to numerous injuries and a lineup that has seemingly decided to go up to the plate blindfolded at times.

Inconsistent is one word to describe the Phillies this year. One night, Jamie Moyer throws a two-hit shutout against the Braves. Another night, he gives up nine runs in an inning of work against the Red Sox. And there hasn’t been much in between. But it’s not over yet. In fact, the Phillies – with all their tribulations in 2010 – remain in the thick of the playoff race.

So what can we expect in the second half? Here’s a little taste. Keep in mind, I’m no Socrates. I’m just a South Jersey kid with a Charlie Manuel jersey and a keyboard.

1. Roy Halladay WILL win 20 games. 

Nine innings, five hits, zero runs allowed… and no win. Roy Halladay’s line against the Cincinnati Reds on Saturday night was nothing new for him, as the ace has pitched brilliantly behind very little run support all year. Halladay leads all of baseball with seven complete games, but he’s only 5-2 in those outings thanks to the lack of offense behind him.

Roy’s 10-7 record doesn’t even come close to telling the story of his 2010 season. By my estimation, he could already have about 15 or 16 victories. That said; if he keeps up his 2.19 ERA – which is very likely in the pitching-dominated NL this year – Halladay should have no problem getting to 20 wins. That is, of course, if the Phillies offense resembles anything close to what it has been in recent years – or the first month and a half of this year, for that matter.

2. Jayson Werth WILL NOT be traded. 

I’ve heard a lot of speculation lately that many teams have inquired about Werth, and the Phillies haven’t exactly made it clear that they are unwilling to deal the right fielder if the right deal comes along.

That could mean one of two things. Of course, it could mean that the Phillies will entertain the deal of trading Werth, who will be a high-prized free agent at the end of the season, to a contending team for some prospects. In this scenario, the Phils would have to be so far back in the division (not to mention the wild card) and so depleted by injuries that management would be unable to foresee another 2007-like comeback.

The other “possibility” is that the Phillies are in contention, but trade Werth to another contending team (most likely in the AL) for some big league players who could help the Phillies in other areas. Yeah, right. The Phils’ biggest problem right now is offense, and trading Werth and his .881 OPS will not help the cause. Plus, any team that wants to acquire Werth will not be willing to give up key Major League pieces right now, because that team will clearly be in the midst of a playoff race.

Bottom line, it’s not going to happen.

3. Phillies fans WILL still hate the Cliff Lee-to-Seattle trade. 

“Cliff Lee is so much better than Roy Halladay.”

“Why couldn’t we just keep Lee and Halladay?”

“I blindly assume that the Phillies have money coming off trees and a full minor league system, so I’m going to complain that Cliff Lee isn’t in pinstripes anymore.”

These are all things that I heard from various Phillies fans following the Cliff Lee trade to the Mariners in December. Seven months later, I’m still hearing the same arguments, as Lee is having a sensational season in the American League. And come playoff time, as Lee leads his new team, the Texas Rangers into the playoffs, I’ll continue to hear the same boorish cries at the Phillies front office.

Obviously, the deal is over and done with. I still stand by the fact that, regardless of how Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies and the other prospects the Phils got in return for Lee turn out, it was a good move by Amaro.

The Phillies had no chance of keeping Halladay and Lee past this season. It’s not even like that was even a possibility. Amaro clearly acquired Halladay from the Jays, knowing that he’d have to replenish the minor league system by dealing Lee.

If you compare the Phillies on July 28, 2009 (a day before they acquired Lee) and the Phillies now, they have added one ace (Halladay), and lost one prospect (gave up seven, got back six) along the way.

But hey, Phillies fans; go ahead and complain. I know you will.

4. Ruben Amaro WILL NOT make a blockbuster trade, but WILL add a key veteran. 

More trade talks? Actually, Phillies fans can expect the exact opposite from GM Ruben Amaro in the upcoming weeks. The Phillies are just four and a half games behind the Braves in the NL East, and two out of the wild card. This is because the Phils have had multiple nagging injuries, all the while suffering through the worst collective offensive slump in recent memory.

The fact is that the slump will turn around. Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth have already begun to pick up their play, and Jimmy Rollins looked pretty good on the recent homestand. Carlos Ruiz came back in style over the weekend, and many people forget that he has a .404 on-base percentage this year.

The Phillies will make additions to the team, but they will come in-house via their health. When Chase Utley comes back, it will be like adding the greatest second baseman of all-time to a team that’s already in the playoff hunt. Similar sentiments go for Placido Polanco and J.A. Happ, although I’ll lay off the “greatest-ever” talk.

If Amaro decides to do anything around the trade deadline, it will most likely be adding a key veteran, either in July or in the August waiver period. We’ve seen it before. Jamie Moyer, Joe Blanton and Ben Francisco are all integral pieces of the 2010 team who were added in midseason deals.

Look for Amaro to either add another arm for the bullpen, or perhaps a veteran utility man to help out the recovering Utley and Polanco.

5. The Phillies WILL make the playoffs. 

Let me make this perfectly clear: Nothing that I have seen from this offense in the past two months indicates that they are a playoff contender. I would even consider the sweep of the Reds a fluke. Remember that six-run ninth inning on Friday? That was the only inning which the Phillies scored three or more runs all week. Consequently, those same offensive woes are reason to think that the Phillies will return to the postseason for the fourth consecutive year.

When healthy, and when firing on all cylinders, they’re the best offense in the National League. Considering the fact that they are right in the middle of the race, given their inability to score runs, makes me believe that they’ll be close to unstoppable once they do decide to hit.

Utley coming back will be the final piece of the puzzle, and there will be no looking back from there. Atlanta simply will not be able to score enough runs in their own right to run away with the division, and that’s because their offense has always been hovering around par. In fact, I’d say they’ve performed better than expected so far in 2010, and those numbers should even out by the end of the year.

So sit back, relax and enjoy watching a spectacular second half of the season. NLDS tickets should go on sale around mid-September.