After the barnburner win over the Chiefs, the Eagles bring their league-best 9-1 record home to take on the underwhelming Buffalo Bills. As the holiday season begins, let’s see where we can find some easy wins to help to make the season bright.
Eagles vs. Bills – Sunday 4:25pm
Point Spread/ML: Eagles -3/-170 Bills +3/+140
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Total Points (O/U): 48.5
Analysis: The Bills have been overrated by the books all season long. They are 4-7 ATS and 3-8 to the Under on totals entering this weekend. They may be the most unpredictable team in the NFL. They’ve had blowout wins over the Raiders, Commanders, Dolphins, and Jets, but also lost to the Jets, Patriots and Broncos.
Picks: Eagles -3, UNDER 48.5 points
Passing Props (O/U):
- Jalen Hurts – 235.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing TDs (-115)
- Josh Allen – 255.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing TDs (-130/+100)
Analysis: No player is more emblematic of the Bills’ up-and-down season than Josh Allen. He is both second in the NFL in passing TDs (22) and interceptions (12). But he has topped 255 yards in 6-of-8. Hurts is also 6-of-8 to the over, but has missed his last two against good defenses (KC, DAL) and the Bills are no slouch, ranked 9th in the league against the pass.
Philadelphia Eagles
Picks: Hurts UNDER passing yards; Allen OVER passing yards, OVER passing TDs
Rushing Props (O/U):
- D’Andre Swift – 60.5 yards
- James Cook – 45.5 yards
- Jalen Hurts – 35.5 yards
- Josh Allen – 30.5 yards
Analysis: James Cook has topped 45.5 in 5-of-6, even while sharing carries with Latavius Murray. Allen has failed to get 30 yards in 6-of-8, and you can look for the Eagles to employ a “mush-rush” to keep him from escaping the pocket, similar to what they did against Patrick Mahomes Monday night. Swift getting to 60 yards looks a little dicey. A safer play could be 50+ yards at -190.
Picks: Cook OVER 40.5, Allen UNDER; Swift 50+ (-190)
Receiving Props (O/U):
- A.J. Brown – 80.5 yards
- Stefon Diggs – 80.5 yards
- DeVonta Smith – 60.5 yards
- Dalton Kincaid – 55.5 yards
- Gabe Davis – 35.5 yards
Analysis: We should continue to lean on Smith, so long as Dallas Goedert is out of action (arm). A.J. Brown had just four targets against the Chiefs and caught just one of them for eight yards. Diggs has had a strong year, but he’s gotten 80 yards in just 1-of-5. Gabe Davis has been a forgotten member of this offense, but he can be explosive and I wouldn’t bet against him.
Picks: Smith OVER 60.5 yards, Kincaid OVER 55.5 yards
Anytime Touchdowns:
- Jalen Hurts -160
- A.J. Brown -115
- D’Andre Swift +105
- Stefon Diggs +115
- DeVonta Smith +175
- Josh Allen +185
- Dalton Kincaid +210
- James Cook +210
- Gabe Davis +225
Analysis: Both QBs are solid plays for an ATD. I also believe that Smith stays hot, and that Diggs finds the end zone, Diggs has 14 red zone targets and 5 scores from inside the 20.
Picks: Hurts, Allen, Diggs, D. Smith