Nine months ago, the Eagles and Chiefs went toe-to-toe in Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona. The highly-anticipated showdown played out as advertised, a 38-35 Chiefs win. New season, but once again these two teams are at the top of the sport, gearing up for a nationally-televised game. Heck, even that Taylor Swift lady will be there. Let’s take a look at the numbers and see if we can’t make some money.
Eagles vs. Chiefs, Monday 8:15pm
Point spread/ML: Eagles +2.5/+115 Chiefs -2.5/-140
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Total (O/U) – 45.5 points
Analysis: Andy Reid’s record coming off a bye is legendary: 28-4 counting the playoffs in his Hall-of-Fame career. Nick Sirianni is 3-0 off a bye as well. Something’s gotta give! The Eagles are underdogs for the first time this season. This line hasn’t moved much this week, but the total has come down from its opening at 47.5. I feel like this is a revenge game of sorts for the Eagles, and they’ll find a way to pull it out. If you want, tease the total down a few points and take the over.
Picks: Eagles ML
Passing Props (O/U)
- Jalen Hurts – 235.5 yards, 1.5 passing TDs, 21.5 completions
- Patrick Mahomes – 285.5 yards, 1.5 (-210/+160), 26.5 completions
Analysis: Hurts has gone over 235.5 yards and 21.5 completions in 6-of-7, and I look for this trend to continue here, in spite of the Chiefs’ strong defense. I feel like Mahomes’ props are pumped up based on the Eagles’ soft passing defense between the 20s, which is fair. If you want to play it safe, Mahomes at 250+ passing yards in an option at -275.
NFL
Picks: Hurts OVER passing yards, OVER completions; Mahomes 250+ passing yds (-275)
Rushing Props (O/U)
- D’Andre Swift – 55.5 yards
- Isiah Pacheco – 50.5 yards
- Jalen Hurts – 35.5 yards
- Kenny Gainwell – 15.5 yards
Analysis: The Eagles getting guard Cam Jurgens back from injury is significant for the Eagles offense, particularly running the ball. The Birds averaged 101 yards per game in the five games without him, compared with 165 per game with him. This spells big things for Swift, who averaged 3.3 yards/carry while Jurgens was injured. Hurts has been full go at practice and I expect him to put on a show running with the ball.
Picks: Swift OVER 55.5 yards; Hurts OVER 35.5 yards; Pacheco 35+ yards (-250)
Receiving Props (O/U)
- A.J. Brown – 85.5 yards, 7.5 receptions
- Travis Kelce – 75.5 yards, 7.5 receptions
- DeVonta Smith – 55.5 yards, 5.5 receptions
- Rashee Rice – 40.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- Justin Watson – 25.5 yards
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 20.5 yards
- Skyy Moore – 20.5 yards
- Isiah Pacheco – 15.5 yards
- D’Andre Swift – 15.5 yards
Analysis: The Eagles missing Dallas Goedert (arm) should be a boon for DeVonta Smith, whose numbers jumped in the five games Goedert missed last year due to injury. Smith averaged 5/84 in those games. Kelce should enjoy himself Monday after being held to 3/14 in Week 9 vs Miami, his lowest output of the season.
Picks: Smith OVER 55.5 yds, OVER 5.5 receptions; Kelce OVER 75.5 yards
Anytime Touchdowns
- Travis Kelce -125
- A.J. Brown +115
- Isiah Pacheco +115
- Jalen Hurts +120
- D’Andre Swift +140
- Rashee Rice +200
- DeVonta Smith +225
- Jack Stoll +400
- Patrick Mahomes +425
Analysis: Hurts got back into the end zone vs the Cowboys, his 7th rushing TD of the season. There will be a Brotherly Shove Monday night in KC. As mentioned, Smith will benefit from Goedert’s absence. Rice is an interesting play; he’s scored in three of his last five games.
Picks: Hurts, Smith, Rice, Kelce