The NFL regular season is back! The Eagles begin their NFC title defense in Foxboro against Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Here are the odds (courtesy PointsBet) and my picks for Week One.
Eagles (-3.5) at Patriots
ML – Eagles -190, Patriots +160
Analysis: I’m always wary of teams getting points on the road. According to sportradar.com, the Eagles were favored on the road seven times. While they won all seven, they covered just two of those games. I’ll take the money line to play it a bit safer. For the total, the Eagles offense should continue to pile up points, and I think the defense will struggle out of the gate, with new faces both on the field and at the DC position. I’m betting overs with the Eagles until they prove to me I shouldn’t.
Picks: Eagles ML, OVER 44.5
Jalen Hurts O/U: 20.5 completions, 31.5 attempts, 245.5 yards, 1.5 passing TDs
Mac Jones O/U: 230.5 yards, 1.5 passing TDs (+150/-200)
Analysis: Jones has had 31 career starts, and thrown one or zero touchdown passes in 20 of them. Hurts has a ton of weapons, but Bill Belichick is still Bill Belichick. New England allowed more than 245 yards five times in 17 games last season.
Picks: Jones UNDER 1.5 passing TD, Hurts UNDER 245.5 passing yards
Jalen Hurts: 40.5 D’Andre Swift: 30.5
Analysis: That number feels light for Hurts, even against that defense. He topped 40.5 yards in 21 of his 34 career regular season starts. As far as Swift – or any other Eagles running back – I would hold off until I see how the work load is divided before I make a move this season.
Picks: Hurts OVER 40.5
A.J. Brown 70.5 DeVonta Smith 60.5
Dallas Goedert 40.5
Analysis: In last year’s season opener against the Lions, Brown had 10 catches for 155 yards. He could start off 2023 with a similar effort. The safe play for Smith could be a 50+ yard game (-260). He averaged nearly 98 receiving yards per game over his last six in 2022. Goedert played in just 12 games last season, but topped 40 yards in 9-of-12.
Picks: Smith 50+ yards (-260), Goedert OVER 40.5
Rhamondre Stevenson -110 Jalen Hurts +115
Ezekiel Elliott +120 A.J. Brown +155
DeVonta Smith +175 Dallas Goedert +200
D’Andre Swift +210 Hunter Henry +230
Mike Gesicki +230 JuJu Smith-Schuster +240
Analysis: I’ll tell you this right now: I will put a Jalen Hurts TD bet in every week, as long as he’s in uniform. He’ll throw for at least one, and this week I’m going to go with Goedert. The Patriots can’t take away all of the Eagles weapons.
Picks: Hurts, Goedert