The 10-1 Eagles face a real test Sunday at home against the 7-4 Tennesse Titans, who have won 4-of-6, with one of their losses coming in overtime to the Chiefs. How will this battle of division leaders shake out? Let’s break it down, and hopefully shake out some value.
(All odds courtesy PointsBet)
Eagles (10-1) vs. Titans (7-4), Sunday 1:00pm
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Point Spread (ML) – Eagles -4.5 (-225); Titans +4.5 (+185)
Point total – 44 points
Analysis: For some reason, I feel like this game will have a good bit of offense. Decent weather, and each team’s offensive strength is a point of weakness for the other’s defense: the Titans will be able to run on the Eagles, and Tennessee’s pass defense is among the worst in football.
Picks: Eagles ML, OVER 44
NFL
Passing yards – Jalen Hurts 225.5; Ryan Tannehill 205.5
Analysis: Hurts has failed to crack 190 passing yards in his last three, but that streak will end, maybe by halftime. Tennessee ranks 31st in passing yards allowed per game (266.7). Tannehill’s season numbers aren’t fantastic, but he has been hot lately, averaging 293 passing yds/game over his last three.
Pick: Hurts OVER
Rushing yards – Jalen Hurts 45.5, Miles Sanders 65.5; Derrick Henry 90.5
Analysis: After a run of five straight 100-yard games, Henry has been held in check, averaging 59 yds/game and 2.78 yds/carry over his last three. That ends Sunday. He will see the ball a ton, and against the Eagles’ soft run defense he will eat. Sanders may not have those openings he saw Sunday night against Green Bay; the Titans boast the league’s third-ranked run defense (84.5 yds allowed/game).
Picks: Sanders UNDER; Henry OVER
Receiving yards
A.J. Brown 80.5 DeVonta Smith 60.5
Treylon Burks 45.5 Robert Woods 35.5
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 25.5 Quez Watkins 25.5
Austin Hooper 20.5 Derrick Henry 15.5
Analysis: The A.J. Brown Revenge Game. He is going to want to put a real hurt on this Titans team for trading him away on draft day this past spring. I also like Watkins, who is seeing more of the ball since Dallas Goedert went down. Keep an eye on Henry in the pass game; if they can find him in space, he’s nearly impossible for a defensive back to bring down alone.
Picks: Brown OVER, Watkins OVER; Henry OVER
Anytime touchdown:
Derrick Henry -130 Jalen Hurts +110
Miles Sanders +120 A.J. Brown +130
DeVonta Smith +185 Treylon Burks +300
Robert Woods +300 Kenneth Gainwell +350
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine +375 Quez Watkins +425
Analysis: As mentioned above, Brown definitely wants to make an example of the Titans. I would honestly check the odds for multiple TD catches for him Sunday. Henry is a nice throw-in in a parlay, but not a ton of value as a single bet.
Picks: Brown, Henry