We can all agree J.J. Arcega-Whiteside’s rookie season was a massive disappointment.
He played 17 games, was on the field for 498 snaps and caught 10 passes for 169 yards and one touchdown.
Of 166 rookie wide receivers who've started at least five games over the last 20 years, he was only the eighth to catch 10 or fewer passes.
Even J.J. himself admitted after the season ended that things did not go well for him: “Ain’t nowhere to go but up.”
But what does it mean in the big picture? What can we expect from JJAW in the future? What are the chances he bounces back from this past season and develops into a productive starting wide receiver?
It’s impossible to say for sure, but if history is a precedent it doesn’t look good.
To try to get a sense of what to expect from Arcega-Whiteside, we looked back at the history of second-round picks who caught 10 or fewer passes as rookies.
NFL
From 1999 through 2018 — the 20-year span before this past draft — there were 90 wide receivers drafted in the second round. They range from Dexter Jackson, who Tampa drafted in 2008 and never caught a pass, to Anquan Bolden, who ranks 9th in NFL history with 1,076 catches.
Of those 88, only 19 caught 10 or fewer passes as rookies.
Those are the 19 whose careers we're going to examine.
- As rookies, those 19 receivers averaged 4 catches for 48 yards.
- In Year 2, only two of the 19 caught as many as 30 passes (both are former Eagles): Steve Smith caught 57 passes for the Giants and Todd Pinkston caught 42. Both were out of the league before their 28th birthday.
- Eight of the 19 caught 10 or few passes again in Year Two. Four of them never played again.
- Twelve of the 19 second-round picks — nearly two-thirds — never reached 100 catches for their career. For a little perspective, Jordan Matthews got to 100 catches in his 22nd career game.
- The last second-round WR to catch 10 or fewer passes as a rookie and reach 100 catches for his career was Jerome Simpson, a 2008 draft pick of the Bengals. He had a 50-catch season in 2011 but only averaged 16 catches per season the rest of his career.
- Of the 19 receivers in our group, only one really had what you would classify as an above-average career. Vincent Jackson played 12 years for the Chargers and Buccaneers, made three Pro Bowls and caught 540 passes for 9,080 yards along with 57 touchdowns.
- Six others caught at least 150 passes: Jerry Porter (295), Smith (245), Devery Henderson (245), Pinkston (184), Robert Ferguson (151) and Simpson (150). They were at least functional receivers, if only for a short period.
- Eight of the 19 were out of the league within four years. The last one to catch a pass after his 30th birthday was Jackson, a 2005 2nd-round pick of the Chargers.
- For their careers, the 19 wideouts averaged 114 catches for 1,665 yards. Probably more fair to look at the mean instead of the average. The means for those 19 receivers are 43 catches and 485 yards. That means half had more than those figures and half had less.
- Note that Cody Latimer, drafted in 2014, and Devin Smith, drafted in 2015, were both technically still active at the end of this past season, so these numbers could change in the future.
What does this all mean?
Of the 19 second-round wide receivers drafted in the 20-year period ending in 2018 who caught 10 or fewer passes as rookies, more than half — 10 of them — finished their career with fewer than 50 catches.
Five others had fewer than 200 catches.
For every Jackson, Porter or Henderson, there’ve been three Dexter Jacksons, Limas Sweeds or Terrence Murphys.
Arcega-Whiteside could end up like Jackson, catch over 500 passes and make three Pro Bowls. He could end up like Porter and catch close to 300 passes.
But based on history? The odds aren't very good.
Click here to download the MyTeams App by NBC Sports! Receive comprehensive coverage of your teams and stream the Flyers, Sixers and Phillies games easily on your device.