Phillies look to bounce back in Game 3 after getting ‘punched in the face' in Game 2

Nick Castellanos reached for a boxing analogy after the Phillies watched an opportunity to take command of their National League Division Series against the Braves evaporate like a water puddle on a hot Atlanta parking lot.

“We thrive after we get punched in the face,” the rightfielder said after Zack Wheeler’s no-hit bid and a 4-0 lead disappeared with stunning suddenness Monday night at Truist Field.

Another way to look at it might involve a military comparison. It could also be said that the Phillies shot themselves in the foot.

Whatever. This much is indisputable. Going into the bottom of the sixth inning, The Math was wearing red pinstripes, humming “Dancing On My Own” and calculating how much Champagne the clubhouse crew needed to have on hand for the inevitable celebration that would break out Wednesday night. Thursday at the latest.

Every Phillies fan can glumly recite the stat by now: In the current Division Series format, teams that won the first two in the best-of-five series have gone 14-2 (.875). Oh, well. . .

In the battle of the mind games, there’s no doubt that the check mark has switched to Atlanta. Going in, the Phillies were gleefully running hype videos starring Chase Utley reminding everyone – especially the Braves – had never beaten the Fightin’ Phils in the postseason. Including last year when the NL East champs were, as they were this season, heavy favorites.

Now, in the battle on dirt and grass, none of that should matter starting at approximately 5:07 p.m. EDT at Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday. The series is even at one game apiece. It’s almost like a reset with the outcome now condensed to best two-out-of-three.

And there are still plenty of reasons to believe the Phillies can win. Plus some to suspect they might not. Among them:

HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE

This is the Phillies trump card and they play it all the time. It’s become an article of faith that the red-clad, towel-waving sellout crowds are their super power and there’s empirical evidence to support that confidence. They're 8-2 in their own playpen the last two years and were 17 games above .500 there during the regular season compared to one game over on the road.

“I think we gain a lot,” Game 3 starter Aaron Nola said during his media availability Tuesday. “I think we have the best home field advantage in the league. I think our crowd is the rowdiest, and we love playing in front of that. It’s tough sometimes for opposing teams to play in this stadium, but we like it a lot. We feed off of it, and the fans are in it from pitch number one until the very end, which is pretty special.

“I’d never experienced it until we finally did it last year. But it's kind of addicting being out there in front of our fanbase over here and to feel the electricity. It just kind of heightens every pitch, and it's fun to be in the moment here.”

Added manager Rob Thomson: “It's super critical. Our fanbase. . .can create a lot of energy for our guys. And there are times when they can intimidate other people. So we love playing in front of them, for sure. It's a big part of our club.”

Counterpoint: Atlanta had exactly the same record (52-29) at home and on the road this season and that included winning five out of six at CBP.

Clearly, the atmosphere will be more intense in the postseason, but Braves manager Brian Snitker shrugged that off when he spoke to reporters in Atlanta on Tuesday.

“It's as nuts of a place as I've ever been, that's for sure,” he said. “I'm sure (our) guys are talking about it. But I think for the most part, when you've been through what (our) guys have been through, you know what, it kind of jacks them up, too.”

RABBIT, RUN

The Phillies finished third in the National League with 141 stolen bases this season and swiped two more in the Wild Card Series sweep of the Marlins. But they’ve taken it to a different level in the NLDS with seven steals in eight tries; two came around to score.

“We've stolen a lot of bases. We've taken a lot of extra bases, put pressure on people. That's what you need to do in the playoffs, and you can't be silly, but I think we've done a good job taking advantage of that,” Thomson said.

Johan Rojas and Bryson Stott each scored after advancing on a wild pitch in Game 1 against Miami.

Counterpoint: The Braves will certainly attempt to make some adjustments to limit the Phillies running game although, as Thomson pointed out, it’s about taking extra bases when possible in addition to steals.

And the Braves can run a little, too. They had 132 stolen bases this season although more than half (73) were by Ronald Acuna Jr.

NOLA AND ZACK WHEELER

Momentum is only as good as your next starter, as the saying goes. And the fact that the Phillies have Nola for Game 3 and Wheeler, if needed, for Game 5 back in Atlanta is a bit of a security blanket.

Nola was inconsistent at times but allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight starts. And Wheeler blew the powerful Braves away in Game 2. (Thomson has yet to commit to Ranger Suarez or name another starter for Game 4.)

Atlanta, meanwhile, has enough pitching uncertainty that they haven’t even announced their start for Wednesday night yet.

Counterpoint: Even if the Braves lose Wednesday, they can still bring back Spencer Strider and Max Fried for the final two games. Though Fried appeared rusty after an 18-day hiatus due to a blister issue in Game 2 that, to use another boxing expression, is a pretty good 1-2 punch.