Four weeks ago, the Eagles squeaked by the Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field in overtime, 34-31. The rematch is Sunday at FedExField. Will the script be different? Let’s find some value in the numbers.
All lines/odds courtesy PointsBet
Eagles at Commanders, Sunday 1 p.m.
Stay in the game with the latest updates on your beloved Philadelphia sports teams! Sign up here for our All Access Daily newsletter.
Point spread/ML – Eagles -7/-300 Commanders +7/+240
Total Points: 43.5
Analysis: While the Eagles have struggled at home against Washington recently for some reason (1-2-1 ATS, 2-2 SU in last four), on the road has been very different. The Birds are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six at FedEx, with four of those wins by double digits. The Commanders have allowed 16 and 14 points in their last two, but against the Falcons and Giants. Prior to that, they allowed 33 or more in four straight.
Picks: Eagles -7, OVER 43.5
Passing Props (O/U)
- Jalen Hurts – 245.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing TDs, 21.5 completions
- Sam Howell – 235.5 passing yards, 1.5 passing TDs (+145), 21.5 completions
Analysis: Not sure why Hurts’ numbers are where they are. He has topped 235.5 yards and 21.5 completions in each of his last five games. Washington’s pass defense ranks 28th against the pass. Hurts shouldn’t have too much trouble hitting his yards and completions Sunday. Howell has been up and down this season – largely down, as in on the ground. He’s been sacked 40 times through seven games.
Philadelphia Eagles
Picks: Hurts OVER yards, OVER completions
Rushing props (O/U)
- D’Andre Swift – 65.5 yards, 15.5 attempts
- Brian Robinson – 40.5 yards, 11.5 attempts
Analysis: Last time against Washington, Swift finished 14/56/1 in a 34-31 overtime finish. I think with Hurts’ knee issue, the team will lean on Swift more than usual. Meanwhile, Robinson has averaged 27.3 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry over his last four, and face a nightmare matchup against the Eagles’ top-ranked run defense.
Picks: Swift OVER 65.5 yards; Robinson UNDER 40.5 yards
Receiving Props (O/U)
- A.J. Brown – 85.5 yards, 5.5 receptions
- Terry McLaurin – 55.5 yards
- DeVonta Smith – 50.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- Dallas Goedert – 40.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- Jahan Dotson – 35.5 yards
- Logan Thomas – 30.5 yards
- D’Andre Swift – 15.5 yards
Analysis: Brown, all day, every day. He’s had 6+ catches and 127+ yards in each of his last five, including 9/175/2 vs Washington four weeks ago. Again, citing Hurts’ knee, look for a fair share of checkdowns to Swift and Goedert. As for Washington, McLaurin has seen 35 targets in the last four games, and has had at least 81 yards in 3-of-4.
Picks: Brown OVER yards, receptions; Swift OVER yards, Goedert OVER receptions; McLaurin OVER yards
Anytime Touchdowns
- Jalen Hurts -120
- D’Andre Swift -105
- A.J. Brown +110
- Brian Robinson +210
- Terry McLaurin +225
- Dallas Goedert +230
- DeVonta Smith +260
- Jahan Dotson +300
Analysis: Hurts has been easy money on this prop thanks to the Brotherly Shove, reaching the end zone in 5-of-6. Brown will get in the end zone again. Nothing else is really a lot of value, save for McLaurin.
Picks: Hurts, Brown, McLaurin