How close is Goedert to being an elite tight end?

Can Dallas Goedert become one of the top tight ends in the NFL?

Guess what. He already is one. 

Some might not think of Goedert in terms of being an elite tight end quite yet, but the numbers say otherwise. The numbers say he’s already there.

Zach Ertz has the 9^th-most catches in NFL history by a tight end, and Goedert’s numbers at the same point in his career – through 57 games - are very similar to his close friend and former teammate:

Ertz: 216 catches, 2,476 yards, 11 TDs

Goedert: 193 catches, 2,295 yards, 16 TDs

So Goedert is averaging about 3 yards per game less than Ertz did in his first 57 games. And just like Ertz played behind Brent Celek his first couple years, Goedert spent his first couple years behind Ertz.

When Celek retired, Ertz took off. And when the Eagles traded Ertz, Goedert took off. Even though neither was a full-time No. 1 tight end until their fourth season, Ertz and Goedert rank 6^th and 7^th among active tight ends in most yards through four seasons. Only Jimmy Graham, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce had more.

But let’s focus on Goedert instead of comparing him to Ertz.

Even though he was splitting time the first six weeks of the season and then missed two games because of COVID later in the year, Goedert still finished 5^th among all NFL tight ends this year with 830 receiving yards, trailing only Andrews, Kelce, Kyle Pitts and Kittle.

But even going back to 2019, Goedert has the 7^th-most yards among tight ends, trailing only Kelce, Darren Waller, Mark Andrews, Kittle, Mike Gesicki and Ertz. And he wasn’t even TE1 during much of that stretch.

The only NFC tight end with more yards than Goedert over the last three seasons is Kittle. This 

Even if you go back to 2018, Goedert’s rookie year, the only NFC tight ends with more yards are Kittle and Ertz.

There are other ways to measure a tight end’s production and one of my favorites is total first downs, and 42 of Goedert’s 56 catches this past year went for first downs. That’s 75 percent, which is an outrageous percentage. Only Andrews (76), Kelce (65) and Pitts (43) had more 1^st-down catches among tight ends.

During the last three years, Goedert has turned 103 of his 160 catches (64 percent) into first downs. Even though he was a TE2 during much of that period (and missed eight games), he’s got the 6^th-most first downs of any tight end since the start of 2019. Only Kelce (210), Andrews (158), Waller (153), Kittle (128) and Ertz (105) have more.  

And that 64 percent figure? Only Kelce (71 percent) is higher among the top 10 tight ends in the league during the last three seasons.

As the Eagles’ passing game presumably evolves and Goedert catches more passes – and, yes, he does need to cut down his drops – his numbers are only going to increase, especially now that Ertz is no longer here.

In fact, if you factor in Goedert’s 92 yards in the playoff game against the Bucs, he had 922 yards in 16 games, which is over 1,000-yard pace for a full season.

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In five games with Ertz, Goedert averaged 43 yards per game. In 11 games after the Ertz trade, he averaged 64 yards. Keep that up over a full season and it’s nearly 1,100 yards.

One other thing to consider is Goedert’s yards per catch. That 14.8 figure made him only the 9^th tight end in the last 30 years to catch 50 passes and average 14.8 yards per catch. He’s such a playmaker down the field. Heck, only three Eagles wide receivers have caught 50 passes with a 14.8 average in the last 20 years – T.O. in 2004, DeSean Jackson three times and Jeremy Maclin in 2014.

And we haven’t even gotten into the fact that he may be a better blocker than receiver, and in this offense, he brings tremendous value with his physicality and blocking both on the line of scrimmage in the run game and down the field. Other than Kittle, none of the other top tight ends in the league is the blocker that Goedert is.

So it’s not a matter of waiting for Goedert to become elite. To become a top-5 tight end.

He’s already there.