A look at Flyers' odds for upcoming 2023 NHL draft lottery


Interim general manager Danny Briere called the Flyers' first-round selection in this summer's entry draft "a critical pick for the organization moving forward."

The team will soon find out at which spot exactly it'll be making that critical pick.

The 2023 NHL draft lottery is Monday, May 8, in Secaucus, New Jersey (8 p.m. ET/ESPN). You can live stream it here.

After ending the 2022-23 season at 31-38-13, the Flyers own the seventh-best odds to win the lottery and land the first overall pick in the draft. They have a 6.5 percent chance at climbing to No. 1. They can't finish in the fourth, fifth or sixth slots, while they can fall no lower than ninth.

Per Tankathon.com, here are the Flyers' odds for each pick:

  • No. 1 — 6.5 percent
  • No. 2 — 6.7 percent
  • No. 3 — 0.2 percent
  • No. 7 — 44.4 percent
  • No. 8 — 36.5 percent
  • No. 9 — 5.6 percent

"We're fortunate it's a good year," Briere said of the draft crop last month. "We have quite a few picks and we have a high one.

"As far as what we're going to do there, it's way too early. We're going to look, we're going to inquire to see what we can do. But the most likely is we're going to keep our pick and pick in the slot we're going to end up with."

On Monday night, there will be a lottery drawing for both the No. 1 and No. 2 selections. Once the top two spots are drawn, the remaining teams will be slotted in the order of their regular-season finish.

Here are the chances for each lottery club at winning the first overall pick:

  • Ducks — 18.5 percent
  • Blue Jackets — 13.5 percent
  • Blackhawks — 11.5 percent
  • Sharks — 9.5 percent
  • Canadiens — 8.5 percent
  • Coyotes — 7.5 percent
  • Flyers — 6.5 percent
  • Capitals — 6.0 percent
  • Red Wings — 5.0 percent
  • Blues — 3.5 percent
  • Canucks — 3.0 percent
  • Senators (Coyotes if pick is not in top five) — 2.5 percent
  • Sabres — 2.0 percent
  • Penguins — 1.5 percent
  • Predators — 0.5 percent
  • Flames — 0.5 percent

In March 2021, the league modified the draft lottery, which now makes only the top 11 seeds eligible to receive the first overall pick.

Right now, the Flyers have nine selections in the draft, which will be held June 28-29 at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. It's possible the Flyers could have 10 picks. By choosing to not sign 2018 first-round selection Jay O'Brien, the Flyers will receive a second-round compensatory selection in either 2023 or 2024.

"It's been months, it feels like, that we've been trying to figure out exactly when the compensation [conveys], but we've told his camp that no, we weren't going to [sign] him," Briere said last month. "The next part is just waiting to see when that pick comes."

Last summer, the Flyers picked in the top five for the first time since 2017. They grabbed U.S. forward Cutter Gauthier at fifth overall. The 19-year-old led Boston College in scoring this season (37 points in 32 games) and is headed back for his sophomore year.

The last time the Flyers finished with a pick in the top three overall was 2017, when they improbably climbed from the 13th position to No. 2 overall. They had a 2.4 percent chance at the second pick that summer and landed it, selecting center Nolan Patrick out of the WHL.

Patrick's time in Philadelphia did not pan out the way some had hoped and anticipated. Following a 30-point rookie season and a 31-point Year 2, Patrick missed all of 2019-20 as he battled a migraine disorder. After playing 52 of 56 games in the shortened 2020-21 campaign, Patrick was dealt away in the July 2021 Ryan Ellis trade.

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