The Eagles continue through their gauntlet of tough opponents with a home tilt against the 8-3 49ers. Many believe this could be a preview of this year’s NFC Championship Game, much like last year. This game, however, will feature a healthy Brock Purdy, who is having a solid season. Let’s see what the numbers tell us.
Eagles vs 49ers – Sunday 4:25 p.m.
Point spread/ML – Eagles +3/+130 49ers -3/-160
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Total Points: 48
Analysis: Surprising that the Eagles are a 3-point dog at home here. Even more surprising that the line hasn’t moved very much since it opened. Not sure there will be a ton of points scored here. Both teams have strong defenses, and the weather report isn’t promising – a 50% chance of rain Sunday in South Philly.
Picks: 49ers ML, UNDER 48
Passing Props (O/U)
- Jalen Hurts – 240.5 yards, 1.5 passing TD, 33.5 attempts, 22.5 completions
- Brock Purdy – 260.5 yards, 1.5 passing TD, 32.5 attempts, 21.5 completions
Analysis: Hurts has been through quite a few tough pass defenses, and while the team keeps winning, his numbers haven’t been so strong. He’s averaged 185.7 pass YPG over his last 3, and the 49ers have allowed more than 240 pass yds four times this season. Purdy has put up some strong numbers this season (261 pass YPG), but he hasn’t really been tested all that often, facing just two top-12 pass defenses (CLE, DAL). Nevertheless, the Eagles’ pass D comes in leaking some oil, ranking 29th of 32 teams.
Philadelphia Eagles
Picks: Hurts UNDER yards, UNDER completions; Purdy OVER yards
Rushing Props (O/U)
- Christian McCaffrey – 75.5 yards, 16.5 attempts
- D’Andre Swift – 50.5 yards, 14.5 attempts
- Jalen Hurts – 40.5 yards, 10.5 attempts
- Deebo Samuel – 10.5 yards
Analysis: The ground game will likely be where this game is won or lost. Both run defenses rank in the top-3, and no one in the game gets more touches than McCaffrey (241). The Eagles have allowed 50+ yards to a RB once in five home games: 51 yards to Tony Pollard of the Cowboys. The 49ers pass rush will likely make a runner out of Hurts, who ran for 65 yards last week against the Bills.
Picks: McCaffrey OVER attempts, Hurts OVER yards
Receiving Props (O/U)
- A.J. Brown – 70.5 yards, 6.5 receptions
- Brandon Aiyuk – 65.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- DeVonta Smith – 60.5 yads, 5.5 receptions
- Deebo Samuel – 50.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- George Kittle – 45.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- Christian McCaffrey – 35.5 yards, 4.5 receptions
- D’Andre Swift – 15.5 yards
Analysis: Smith has been the money play here over the past month, hitting the over on receptions and yards in 3-of-4. On the other side, I think this is the matchup where the Eagles could get skewered. The prospect of McCaffrey, Samuel and Kittle in space could provide nightmares for a defense that struggles against the pass when 100%, and could be down to just two linebackers Sunday.
Picks: Smith OVER yards, OVER receptions; McCaffrey OVER receptions; Kittle OVER yards; Samuel OVER yards
Anytime Touchdowns
- Christian McCaffrey -210
- Jalen Hurts -105
- A.J. Brown +125
- D’Andre Swift +150
- Brandon Aiyuk +160
- Deebo Samuel +170
- George Kittle +170
- DeVonta Smith +175
- Eagles or 49ers D/ST +475
Analysis: McCaffrey has been about as automatic as a sunrise to score; counting last year’s postseason he has cashed in 19-of-20 games. I’m rolling with Hurts and Swift as well.
NOTE: If you’re a regular reader of this betting guide, I went 4-for-4 on ATDs last week. (Even a broken clock is right twice a day.)
Picks: McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Hurts, Swift